While it might be the dog days of summer, at least we still have baseball.
It’s really the star of the show at the moment, as most of the other major sports are in the off-season.
With only six games on the schedule tonight, we have to carefully examine each one to find the most appealing projections on PrizePicks.
I have narrowed it down to my four favorite picks, so let’s get right into tonight’s slate.
Look, I know Strider hasn’t topped nine strikeouts in any of his last five starts, but today’s matchup sets up too well for him to ignore it.
The Twins have the highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching (28.3%) and it’s not even close.
Eight of their projected starters have a strikeout rate over 24% and five of them have a strikeout rate over 30%.
Meanwhile, Strider boasts a 39% strikeout rate on the season, which is the highest in the majors.
To sum it up, we have the best strikeout pitcher in baseball taking on the team that strikes out more than any other.
It’s a great spot for double-digit strikeouts.
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There are a lot of reasons to expect Williamson to struggle tonight.
He’s pitching on the road against a very good Orioles lineup, and he doesn’t have a great skill set to begin with (relative to other major league starters).
This season, he owns a 6.72 xERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a walk rate of 8%.
His strikeout rate dips to 16% when facing right-handed hitters and he’s expected to face nine of them tonight against Baltimore.
Williamson has struck out fewer than four batters in four of his seven starts this season.
Irvin has a career-high 21.6% strikeout rate this season, but it’s a little misleading.
His average appearance this season has been 3.1 innings, and he has only pitched more than five innings one time.
He has only thrown 26 and 68 pitches in his last two starts, so there’s a good chance he doesn’t pitch deep into tonight’s game.
On top of that, he’s facing a Reds team that has crushed left-handed pitching this season.
Their team wOBA against southpaws is .350, and seven of their projected starters have a .360 or higher wOBA.
This is my first time dipping into the pitches-thrown projections, so hopefully, I get off to a nice start.
Castillo has thrown at least 99 pitches in five straight starts and has thrown at least 101 pitches in three consecutive starts.
A matchup against the Nationals sets up well for him to pitch deep into the game.
Washington has a .308 team wOBA against right-handed pitching (one of the worst in baseball), and Castillo gets to face them at home in a fairly pitcher-friendly ballpark.
As long as he’s pitching well, he should be able to pitch six or seven innings and hopefully cross that 100-pitch mark in the process.