Happy Friday! Welcome back for another breakdown of the MLB PrizePicks board.
We have another full Friday night slate with all 30 teams in action.
Let’s get right into it and uncover some of my favorite selections today.
Severino missed the first couple months of the season with a lat strain, and he has made only two starts this season.
He has recorded less than 5.5 strikeouts in both of those starts, finishing with exactly five in each start.
His strikeout rate has seen a significant decline and sits at just 23.3% for the season.
He has managed only a 9.5% swinging strike rate also, so it’s not as if he is just dealing with some bad luck.
The Whiff rate on his slider sits at just 26.7%, after being at 41.7% last season.
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Today, he gets a brutal matchup with the Dodgers, who own a .340 wOBA and 115 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
Both rank second in the league.
Their projected lineup owns just a 19.7% cumulative strikeout rate versus righties this year, and they have walked at an elite 11.0% clip.
Severino is also likely still dealing with a limited leash, as he threw just 75 and 83 pitches in his first two starts.
It will be difficult for him to pitch deep into this game against an elite offense with a limited pitch count.
I like him to record less than 5.5 strikeouts today.
Glasnow made his season debut last weekend against the Dodgers, returning from 2021 Tommy John surgery and a spring training oblique injury.
He was allowed to throw 83 pitches across 4.1 innings, and should only be stretched out further from here.
The results were mixed as he struck out 8 against only 1 walk, but he did allow 5 hits and 3 runs.
A little rust was to be expected after such a long layoff, and I would call it a successful return for Glasnow.
Last we saw a healthy Glasnow back in 2021, he was dominating the league with a 36.2% strikeout rate.
He looked to be on his way back to that form in his 2023 debut.
He averaged 96.5 MPH on his fastball, and generated elite Whiff rates on both his slider (62.5%) and curveball (54.5%).
His matchup against the Red Sox in Fenway Park is not ideal, but it is better than his first one against the Dodgers.
The Red Sox are a low-strikeout team overall, but the five bats at the bottom of the projected order have all struck out at 24.4% or more versus right-handed pitching this season.
If he can limit the damage from the top of the order, he should be able to rack up more than 6.5 strikeouts.
Webb has been an elite pitcher for the last two seasons, and he has taken yet another step forward this season.
He owns a 3.02 SIERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, and 4.9% walk rate this year – all of which represent career bests.
Webb is coming off his best start of the season, where he allowed just 1 run against the Brewers over 7.0 innings.
He struck out 11, allowed only 4 hits, and issued just 1 walk.
Today, he gets a matchup against an Orioles team that will be without one of its best hitters, as Cedric Mullins was recently placed on the IL.
They signed Aaron Hicks to fill in after he was released by the Yankees, and he owns a 29.3% strikeout rate versus righties this season.
Webb has one the longest leashes in baseball, as he has averaged nearly 98 pitches per start, and he has thrown more than 100 pitches in five starts this season.
He has recorded more than 5.5 strikeouts in 8 of his 11 starts this season.
I think he does it again versus a watered-down Orioles lineup.