I hope everyone had a great Father’s Day Weekend.
We don’t have the most extensive slate on tap tonight in Major League Baseball, but we have nine games starting at 6:40 PM ET or later.
We will focus our attention on these nine games for our selections on PrizePicks.
I’ve narrowed it down to my favorite four picks for this evening.
This is my first time trying the first-inning runs-allowed projection on PrizePicks.
This combination gives us two of the worst pitchers on the slate; all we need is for them to give up one run in the first inning between them.
On the season, Lyles has a 5.03 xERA with a .347 xwOBA allowed.
He’s facing the Tigers, but Detroit’s offense can surprise us at times.
Gomber has struggled mightily this season, posting a 7.20 xERA with a .403 xwOBA allowed.
He has to go on the road to face the Reds, who are seventh in team wOBA against left-handed pitching.
Tigers and Reds, all we are asking for is a single run in the first.
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Even though I have one projection going against Lyles today, I still like his chances to pitch deep into this game.
The Tigers are dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
While Lyles isn’t a great pitcher, he tends to throw a lot of strikes and has actually been relatively tough on right-handed hitters.
This should come in handy in this matchup, as Detroit is expected to start six righties in their lineup.
Lyles has recorded at least 15.5 pitching outs in eight of his last 13 starts, and I would argue that this is his best matchup to date.
The Reds are my favorite offense to target tonight on PrizePicks.
They are playing at home in the most home-run-friendly ballpark in baseball, and they have an exploitable matchup against Austin Gomber.
As noted earlier, he currently has a 7.20 xERA with a .403 xwOBA allowed.
These are some of the worst marks of any starting pitcher this season.
India has a high walk rate (13%), he has good speed (12 stolen bases), and he has good numbers against left-handed pitching (.325 wOBA). I like him to score more than 7.5 fantasy points.
I’m generally lower on Berrios than consensus, but I like him in two specific situations – in pitcher-friendly ballparks and when he’s facing a heavily right-handed lineup.
Tonight he squares off against the Marlins in LoanDepot Park.
Berrios has held righties to a .266 wOBA this season and he’s expected to face six of them tonight.
More importantly, five of those projected starters have a strikeout rate of at least 25% against right-handed pitching.
Good luck tonight!