Welcome to another MLB Wednesday!
The NBA Finals are over and baseball will take center stage for the foreseeable future.
It’s a loaded slate today, so let’s dive in and find some winners.
I’m leading off with my favorite analysis of the day.
Valdez has shown pin-point control this season, walking only 5% of hitters.
It’s actually an improvement from his 8% BB rate last season, which is still pretty good.
The Nationals only have three hitters in their projected lineup with walk rates higher than 7%, while there are two batters who walk less than 2% of the time against southpaws.
The Nats rank 28th in walks per game this season.
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Kelly is having a borderline breakout season.
He’s surprisingly striking out 27% of batters, which is a 5% increase from last season.
The Phillies are finally heating up in the middle of June here.
There are surely some holes in the lineup, but I think this is a very fair number.
Kelly throws his changeup at a pretty high rate, while the Phillies projected lineup is collectively above average in making contact against that pitch.
I think it’s close, but I’m thinking five or six tops for Kelly tonight.
Civale has hovered right around this number in each of his four starts this season.
Quite frankly, he’s just not a very good pitcher.
His K rates are way down so far this season compared to his 2022 numbers, striking out 17% of hitters (and 14% of lefties).
He has posted single-digit swinging-strike rates in each game this season.
The Padres have the ability to send out plenty of left-handed hitters against him today, as the projected lineup currently has five of them on the card.
The Pads projected lineup has a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters, with three of its four biggest liabilities buried at the bottom of the order.
There’s always a chance this talented offense knocks Civale around early in the game, which is another reason why I like this one quite a bit.
Turner will have the upper hand in this one, at least until the Rockies turn it over to the bullpen.
Left-handed Austin Gomber is starting for Colorado and he’s striking out only 14% of batters this season.
Turner has always been notorious for making contact and 2023 has proven to be no different.
He is striking out just 15% of the time in 2023 and only 8% of the time against left-handed pitchers across the last 30 days.
There’s plenty of opportunity for De La Cruz to get on base today.
Royals starter Daniel Lynch has given up 19 hits and 16 innings this season since returning from injury, while the Kansas City bullpen has the second-worst ETA in the league.
The highly-touted De La Cruz called himself the “fastest man in the world” a few days ago.
While that is a stretch, he definitely has some wheels, already tallying five steals in eight games as a pro.
Lynch has given up 54% of hard contact to righties during these three games, which puts Elly in a good spot to do a bit of damage with one swing.