Welcome back for another Friday breakdown of the MLB PrizePicks board.

All 30 teams are in action today, with only the Braves-Cubs game starting before 6:40 PM ET. 

Let’s take a look at some of my favorite projections to target today.  

Nola has had a down year by his standards.

His 24.7% strikeout rate is the lowest it has been since his rookie season in 2015.

His 4.43 ERA is over a full run higher than it was last season. 

With that said, his 3.85 SIERA and 3.82 xFIP both suggest he has been unlucky this season.

His 12.1% swinging strike rate is in line with his career rate (just 0.5% below last season when he posted a 29.1% strikeout rate) and suggests he has had some unfortunate variance in the strikeout department as well. 

On top of the expected positive regression coming Nola’s way, he gets a great matchup with Kansas City today. 

The Royals have posted the 4th lowest wOBA (.292) and rank dead last in wRC+ (80) versus right-handed pitching this season.

They have also struck out at the 8th highest rate (23.9%) versus righties this year. 

Nola has posted at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last 5 starts.

He should be able to work deep into this game due to the weak opponent, and I expect the positive strikeout regression to push him to more than 6.5 strikeouts in this matchup. 

Manoah has had a disastrous season that includes a demotion to the minor leagues.

He owns just an 18.4% strikeout rate and 14.6% walk rate this year. 

His numbers since his return from the minors have improved, but he is still struggling in a big way.

In 4 starts since his return, he has posted a solid 23.0% strikeout rate, but the walks (13.8%) are still impairing his ability to work deep into games. 

Today, he has the tough task of going into Fenway Park to face a high-contact Red Sox offense.

The Sox have struck out at the sixth-lowest rate (21.4%) in MLB against righties, while posting an above average 104 wRC+. 

Five of the hitters in their projected lineup have struck out at less than 19.5% versus right-handed pitching.

Three of the four hitters that have struck out at a higher rate hit from the left side of the plate. 

Bad news for Manoah since he has held a wide split in his strikeout rate throughout his career.

This season he has managed to strike out just 17.6% of lefties (compared to 19.8% of righties). 

Last season the split was even wider as he struck out just 19.0% of lefties (compared to 27.4% of righties). 

The Red Sox project to roll out 6 lefties today against Manoah. 

The combination of the Sox ability to get very left-handed, plus the great hitters park in Fenway, leave this as a very tough spot for a RHP who has struggled all season. 

I like Manoah to record less than 4.5 strikeouts today. 

Paxton is having a resurgent season after dealing with multiple injuries over the past several seasons, but the strikeout rate has fallen off considerably from his scorching hot start to the season. 

He posted a 32.7% strikeout rate through his first seven starts this season, but his strikeout rate sits at just 23.0% in the 6 starts that followed.

He has recorded more than six strikeouts in just two of those six starts. 

He gets a matchup with the Blue Jays, who have struck out at the 3rd lowest rate (18.9%) in the league versus lefties this season.

They also own an elite 10% walk rate versus lefties, which is one of the things that can get Paxton in trouble. 

I expect the Jays to run up his pitch count with a combination of patience and right-handed power, making this a difficult spot for Paxton to pitch deep into the game. 

Harper has yet to regain his power stroke, as he has posted just a .113 ISO versus righties since his return from offseason Tommy John Surgery, but he is still doing plenty of damage with a .357 wOBA versus righties this season. 

The power is coming back eventually, and he might just have the matchup to turn it around today. Even if he doesn’t find the power stroke, he has plenty of ways to clear this projection versus Jordan Lyles. 

Lyles has been one of the worst starting pitchers in all of MLB, posting a woeful 6.15 ERA with a 10.2% barrel rate and 1.76 HR/9 allowed this season.

He owns just a 16.7% strikeout rate, and he has allowed over 50% hard contact to lefties.

Harper should have no problem putting the ball in play, and I expect there to be some traffic on the bases ahead of him for RBI chances.