Welcome back for another Friday breakdown of the MLB PrizePicks board.

We have 15 baseball games on tap today that all start at 6:40 PM ET or later.

Let’s jump right in and identify some selections to help anchor your PP cards tonight. 

Sanchez has had a solid season for the Phillies, with a 3.36 ERA that is fully supported by underlying metrics.

His ground ball rate (58.0%) and walk rate (4.7%) are both elite, but he is just an average strikeout pitcher (22.7%). 

His 9.4% swinging strike rate suggests he has been a little fortunate to rack up as many strikeouts as he has. 

Despite his slightly lucky strikeout rate, he has recorded more than 5 strikeouts in just 3 of his 12 starts this season. 

He threw only 78 pitches in his last start and has averaged just 81 pitches per start this season. 

Additionally, he gets a matchup with the Cardinals, who are an above-average offense (111 wRC+) and strike out at the seventh-lowest rate in the league (21.3%). 

The Cardinals are projected to roll out nine righties in their lineup, which is not ideal for Sanchez. 

He has just a 21.3% strikeout rate against righties compared to a 28.6% strikeout rate against lefties.

Sanchez has a lot of factors working against him here, and I like him to record less than 5 strikeouts. 

Manning has dealt with injuries again this season and has made just 12 starts for the Tigers. 

He has delivered mixed results over 64.2 innings, including a 4.31 ERA that he has been fortunate enough to achieve thanks to a .232 BABIP.

His 5.58 xFIP and 5.22 SIERA suggest he has actually pitched much worse than his results. 

Manning’s strikeout rate sits at just 15.6% on the season, and his 6.9% swinging strike rate tells us he is still not capable of missing many bats at the Major League level. 

He has only recorded more than 4 strikeouts in 3 of his 12 starts this season. 

Today, he gets a difficult matchup against a contact-heavy Houston team that owns the 4th-lowest strikeout rate in the league (20.7%). 

They own a 106 wRC+ on the season, despite several of their top bats (like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez) missing significant time due to injury. 

The Astros are back to near full strength currently, and should perform as one of the league’s top offenses the rest of the season. 

I like Manning to record less than 4 strikeouts against a tough Astros lineup today. 

Gray has turned in a second consecutive season of outstanding work for the Twins.

He owns a 3.15 ERA, with a 24.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. 

He has recorded more than 6 strikeouts in 4 consecutive starts, posting a 31.7% strikeout rate in that time. 

The trouble is, I am not seeing anything fundamentally different that would help him achieve far superior results to what he has posted the rest of the season. 

His fastball velocity sat at 93.3 MPH compared to 92.9 MPH for the season, and his pitch mix was virtually the same. 

Prior to those 4 starts, he recorded less than 6 strikeouts in 10 of 11 starts, posting a strikeout rate of just 18.4%. 

Today, Gray gets a difficult matchup against the Rangers, who have been an elite offense all season. They currently rank in the top 10 of MLB  in many offensive categories, including wRC+ (3rd), wOBA (2nd), ISO (3rd), and walk rate (7th).

They also strike out at a below average rate of 22.5%, which is 14th-best in the league. 

The recent form suggests he has a chance to beat this projection, even in a tough matchup, but he hasn’t flirted with a 30% strikeout rate since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. 

Gray doesn’t have the longest leash either, as he has averaged less than 90 pitches per start this season. 

I think the Rangers can force him to work hard in this one with their combination of power and patience, and hold him to less than 6 strikeouts. 

To say Strider is the top strikeout pitcher among starting pitchers would be a massive understatement. He owns a 38.2% strikeout rate on the season, which is the best in baseball among qualified starters. 

The next highest strikeout rate among starters belongs to Kevin Gausman (31.7%). The gap between Strider and Gausman is the same as the gap between Gausman and Lucas Giolito, who ranks 21st in strikeout rate among starters. 

Tonight, Strider gets a matchup with the Giants, who own the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball (24.9%). 

He just faced this Giants team a week ago and recorded 10 strikeouts over 7 scoreless innings. 

That matchup was in Strider’s home park in Atlanta, which is a much tougher place to pitch than San Francisco.

I like Strider to dominate this Giants lineup and record more than 9 strikeouts again.