Welcome to another Wednesday PrizePicks MLB article!
Let’s take a collective deep breath from all of the NBA postseason drama and take a look at the PrizePicks board to see what we can dial up on the diamond.
Who is Louie Varland?
Louie debuted against the Yankees last week, tossing six innings, giving up three solo shots, but striking out eight.
Not too shabby.
Yes, the Yankees are struggling, but so is his opponent tonight, the Chicago White Sox.
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This is a fair number for Varland in his second start.
If he were more of a known commodity, this line would be a full K higher.
I don’t think his eight-strikeout performance was a fluke.
He certainly showed the ability to put away hitters at every level of the minors.
Across two levels in 2022 (AA and AAA), Varland struck out 146 batters in 126 innings.
If he just survives into the fifth inning, I think this number is very competitive.
The White Sox are an average strikeout team this season.
Varland produced a 14% swinging-strike rate against the Yankees and I’m backing him to get more than five on Wednesday.
We have a household name with a very low number today.
Manoah has been really struggling this season.
He has eclipsed this number in a few starts, but he’s not making it very deep into games while striking out less than 20% of hitters with an xFIP over six. Woof.
The talent is certainly there.
Maybe he’ll figure it out in 2023, maybe he won’t.
However, I do think the top of this projected Boston lineup will give him fits.
There are three lefties (and Justin Turner) at the top with very low strikeout and high walk rates – both should help drive up Manoah’s pitch count.
It’s possible Manoah pitches well and still does not strike out five hitters in this one due to the contact-heavy Red Sox lineup.
I like all of the Blue Jays in this matchup against Nick Pivetta.
I’ve targeted Pivetta quite a bit with certain hitters this season and have had success.
He’s been downright bad in 2023, with a 4.94 xFIP, an ISO of over .200 to both sides of the plate, and a hard-contact rate of over 40% with high fly-ball numbers.
I’m not exactly a BvP (batter vs. pitcher) truther, but if there are any decent sample sizes, it’s certainly a piece to my puzzle if something is significant.
Well, these Blue Jays have 141 career at-bats against Pivetta and are slashing .319/.400/.596 against him.
Bichette and Vlad are my two favorite Jays in this spot.
I like Bichette – he’s in good form, hits curveballs well, and he does have tangible (and recent) BvP numbers against Pivetta (10 for 24 with two doubles and two home runs).
Any time Cron is slated for a lefty at home, I’m interested.
Tonight is no different with Eric Lauer on the mound, who is yielding a .201 ISO, a 45% fly ball, and a 42% hard-contact rate against RHB since the beginning of 2022.
Better yet, Lauer throws almost 50% of fastballs to right-handed hitters, which is directly in Cron’s wheelhouse.
You can follow Justin Carlucci on Twitter @ThejCarlucci