Most people tend to have a case of the Monday blues right now, but not those of us that play on PrizePicks.
We have 11 MLB games on the schedule tonight, and they all start after 6:00 PM ET.
This means we have plenty of games to choose from when it comes to our selections for PrizePicks. I have narrowed it down to my four favorite picks for tonight’s set of games.
This talented young pitcher was built for strikeouts.
In 13 starts at the Double-A level last season, he had a 28% strikeout rate.
In three starts at the Triple-A level this season, he had a 31% strikeout rate.
In two starts so far in the majors this season, he has a 30% strikeout rate.
The numbers seem sustainable, as he has elite stuff and generates a lot of swings and misses.
Tonight he’ll pitch at home against the Tigers, who have seven hitters in their projected lineup with at least a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Everything lines up for Bibee to have another strong outing, and we don’t need to worry about his pitch count after throwing 91 and 92 pitches in his last two starts.
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I don’t often visit the hits allowed section of the PrizePicks lobby, but this one stood out to me.
Mikolas has made seven starts this season and has allowed the following number of hits in those outings (starting with the most recent): 8, 4, 5, 7, 10, 9, and 10.
The underlying metrics suggest that this hasn’t been due to bad luck; he hasn’t been pitching well.
He currently owns a 6.11 xERA (expected ERA) with a .374 xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) allowed.
He draws a fairly difficult matchup on the road against the Cubs, who have the fourth most hits in baseball this season.
The fact that Mikolas has great control is a positive for this pick, as he’s unlikely to walk a lot of batters.
Gallen is off to a fantastic start this season.
He owns a 2.55 xERA with a strikeout rate of 35% and a walk rate of 3%.
The gap between his strikeouts and walks is one of the largest in all of baseball.
Over the last two seasons, he’s had a 5% higher strikeout rate at home, and that’s where he will be pitching tonight.
He has recorded at least 6.5 strikeouts in five of his seven starts this season, so right off the bat, this number feels a little low.
Add in a matchup against the Marlins, and this becomes one of my favorite picks on the slate.
Miami has the 14th most strikeouts as a team this season, and their lineup isn’t loaded with the most patient hitters.
I follow a simple flowchart when it comes to the Diamondbacks.
If they are facing a lefty, I look to get exposure to Walker in some fantasy format or another.
Since the start of last season, he owns a .371 wOBA and a .260 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Those are elite numbers and he’s been in solid form to start this season – .341 xwOBA with a .202 xISO.
He draws a favorable matchup at home against Braxton Garrett, who has given up a .369 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.
To sum it up, we have a right-handed hitter that mashes southpaws against a left-handed pitcher who struggles against righties.
You can follow Derek Farnsworth on Twitter @RG_Notorious