It’s hard to believe that May is already here. The MLB season is in full swing and as is always the case on Mondays, I will be guiding you through the PrizePicks lobby for tonight’s baseball slate.
There are six games on the schedule that start at 7:05 PM ET or later, so we will focus on those for the picks. I made picks from four different categories – pitching outs, fantasy score, strikeouts, and hits allowed.
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Smyly has only topped this mark once in five starts this season, but he’s faced some potent and patient offenses in his last four outings – the Padres, Dodgers (twice), and Mariners. We rarely see a pitcher have a breakout season at the age of 33 years old, but Smyly currently owns a 2.34 xERA this season, which is the lowest at any point of his career.
Tonight he faces the Nationals, who don’t have a lot of firepower in their lineup outside of Joey Meneses. The Nationals have also drawn the eighth fewest walks in baseball, which should help keep the pitch count for Smyly at a reasonable number each inning.
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This is my favorite pick on PrizePicks this evening. For starters, we have Devers projected for a fantasy score of 9.9, which is well above the 8.0 needed. Jose Berrios has had two big weaknesses throughout his career – pitching on the road and facing left-handed hitters. In his career, his SIERA, wOBA, ISO, and strikeout rate are all worse on the road than at home.
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Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .366 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Meanwhile, Devers is playing at home in Fenway and owns a .387 wOBA to go along with a .266 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.
Garcia got off to a bit of a slow start this season. He only recorded eight strikeouts in his first two starts combined and allowed 12 runs in his first three outings. He seems to have turned a corner, as he’s racked up seven, nine, and seven strikeouts in his last three starts. Since the start of last season, he owns a 25% strikeout rate.
The real kicker here is a home matchup against the Giants. San Francisco’s projected lineup has five hitters with a strikeout rate over 28% against right-handed pitching. Garcia comes into the game in good form and he can afford to be more aggressive in this ballpark.
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I know he’s Blake Snell and I know he’s likely to figure it out sooner rather than later, but he has struggled mightily in the early going of the 2023 season. He currently has an xERA of 7.02 while allowing an estimated batting average of .283. One of the biggest issues he’s had has been his control and walks aren’t factored into this selection, but allowing walks certainly doesn’t help build confidence.
I wouldn’t call the Reds an elite offense, but they are 18th on the season in hits and they have a combined wOBA of .313 against southpaws. Snell has allowed at least four hits in four of his first five starts this season.
You can follow Derek Farnsworth on Twitter @RG_Notorious