On Tuesday, Gerrit Cole led an injured and slumping team desperate for a win onto the field at Yankee Stadium.
He threw 7 ¹/₃ innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts, leading the Yankees to a 3-1 win over Seattle.
The win moved Cole’s record to 8-1 and his ERA to 2.64.
So, naturally, the question came up: Is Cole a Cy Young contender?
Vegas oddsmakers have him in the running.
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At BetMGM, Cole has the fourth-shortest odds of any American League pitcher at 7/1.
Shane McClanahan is the front-runner with +240 odds, Framber Valdez is the runner-up at +275 odds, and Kevin Gausman checks in at +600 odds.
Unfortunately, from a bettor’s eye, I regret to inform you that Cole is not worth a wager to win Cy Young.
I don’t think MLB writers pay close enough attention to WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to factor it into their awards voting directly.
Still, there’s a clear correlation between high-WAR players and award winners.
For example, Aaron Judge led the league in WAR last year and won MVP. Sandy Alcantara led all pitchers in WAR last season and won the Cy Young.
WAR is an all-encompassing statistic that measures a player’s value by deciphering how many extra wins he’s worth compared to a replacement-level player at the same position.
For example, a player with 2.5 WAR is worth 2.5 wins to his squad over a minor league or readily available fill-in free agent.
Because the statistic measures every facet of a player’s game, the best players in any given season usually lead the league in WAR.
And, in general, the best players in any given season usually win their respective MVP or Cy Young awards. You get the correlation.
By FanGraphs’ calculation, Cole ranks seventh among AL pitchers in WAR, behind guys like George Kirby and Joe Ryan.
Cole has put together stellar numbers on the surface, but his peripherals are shaky.
He pairs his mid-2.00s ERA with an expected ERA over a run higher, likely due to his lackluster batted-ball statistics (he’s allowing more hard contact than ever).
Cole has lost some velocity on his fastball and is striking out fewer batters while walking more.
Cole is still a good pitcher, but I have concerns about his statistical profile and believe he’s due for regression.
Therefore, it’s impossible to recommend a wager on him in the Cy Young market.
If anything, Cole is overvalued at the current odds — he’s closer to the 10th-best pitcher in the league than the first.
If I were to recommend a wager for an AL Cy Young winner, my best bet would be on Toronto’s Gausman.
Gausman leads the AL in FanGraphs’ pitching WAR (3.1), and his numbers undersell how dominant he’s been.
His 3.10 ERA is juiced by three outlier performances, where he allowed six earned runs to the Twins, eight to the Red Sox and seven to the Astros.
He has not allowed more than three ERs in any other start this season and has already recorded six shutout starts (Cole has four).
One of the best indicators of future pitching performance is strikeout-minus-walk rate.
Gausman leads all qualified AL pitchers in that statistic by a staggering three percentage points (25.3 percent). Meanwhile, Cole ranks 12th (19 percent).
I think Gausman is the best pitcher in the AL and can only improve as the season progresses, while Cole can only regress.
If you’re looking to bet on the next AL Cy Young winner, look toward Gausman at 6/1 and away from Cole at 7/1.