Excluding the Dodgers-Padres early start in Korea, we’re exactly two weeks into the Major League Baseball season.
We can take a few big lessons from what we’ve seen in each team’s early play and place some futures bets — one in each league — based on those broad strokes.
The AL is a gauntlet.
Look no further than the AL East, where the Yankees look like a World Series contender, and the Orioles, Rays, and Blue Jays are still projected as playoff teams. The Red Sox are also off to a surprisingly hot start.
The AL Central looks stronger than ever. The Guardians have gotten out quickly, and the Tigers and Royals are starting to show promise after long rebuilds. But I still think the Twins win the division.
The AL West is a little weaker than in past years, but I think the Astros and Mariners turn things around after poor starts.
While there are three wild-card spots available, somebody has to get left out. I’m betting that’ll be the reigning World Series champion Rangers.
The lineup is still dangerous, and Texas ranks among the top five MLB teams in most offensive metrics, but I have serious concerns about the pitching staff, especially in the rotation.
Nathan Eovaldi looks good, but the Rangers don’t have much depth. How long can the quartet of Cody Bradford, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Andrew Heaney hold up?
Obviously, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are due to return. But not for a while, and considering the league’s strength, will the Rangers be too far in the hole when they return?
I’m also not bullish on the bullpen, which isn’t much better than the MLB average.
Too many AL teams are gunning for the playoffs, and the Rangers are vulnerable in the first half.
PECOTA projects the Rangers make the playoffs around 52% of the time, but FanGraphs is closer to 43%.
But you can currently get the Rangers to miss the playoffs at +182 on FanDuel Sportsbook, which implies the Rangers make the postseason a whopping 65% of the time.
I argue the Rangers are juiced in the markets after their incredible October run last year. Still, there’s a considerable chance they won’t be among the top seven AL squads by the time September ends.
Pick: Rangers to miss playoffs (+182, FanDuel)
While the AL is filled with potentially elite teams, the NL is much different.
The Braves and Dodgers are World Series contenders, but the rest of the league is filled with middling squads that could quickly fall out of playoff contention.
The Nationals, Mets and Marlins look like lost causes in the East. Plus, the Phillies boast no depth, meaning they’re one significant injury away from trouble.
The Central looks strong, but I question if some of these teams can sustain success in the long run, particularly the Pirates, who lead the division after a strong start.
The West has four teams under .500. Somebody should emerge as a surprise contender among this group of mediocre talent.
I’m betting on the Giants. Their
A 4-8 start is not ideal, but I still like the roster’s high floor.
San Francisco is always good at platooning and matching its talent to maximize potential. The Giants will use platoons and bulk relievers to maximize wins.
Among that depth, leadoff hitter Jung Hoo Lee should see plenty of positive regression in his rookie year (.295 wOBA, .328 xwOBA).
In fact, the whole team is underperforming. The Giants own a .293 wOBA this year but a .317 xwOBA. They’re hitting the ball hard (43.7% hard-hit rate ranks third in MLB), but nothing is falling yet (.269 BABIP is 22nd).
LaMonte Wade Jr., Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto, Matt Chapman and Thairo Estrada are all dangerous hitters who could still hit the higher end of their projections.
The pitching depth is worth buying. In the rotation, Logan Webb and Blake Snell are sure to improve upon slow starts. Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks are two of the better swingmen in baseball.
Meanwhile, the bullpen is among the league’s best, even if their 6.10 ERA doesn’t show it. Camilo Doval and the Rogers Bros (Tyler and Taylor) make up one of the best relief duos in the league, and I’m rather high on Ryan Walker’s potential.
Ultimately, the Giants are off to a slow start, but I love the roster’s makeup and expect much better results in the future, creating a good time to buy low.
Projections agree with me, as PECOTA gives San Francisco a 42% chance of making the dance, implying about +138 fair odds.
You can buy San Francisco to make the playoffs at +170 on BetMGM Sportsbook, and those are good odds.
Pick: Giants to make playoffs (+170, BetMGM)