We nearly had a winner in our first PGA Tour betting preview of the season, but Patrick Cantlay couldn’t close the door Sunday after leading in each of the first three rounds.
Hideki Matsuyama put up a flawless 62 in the final round to win the Genesis Invitational.
We now go from one of the best fields of the year to easily the worst.
The Mexico Open at Vidanta is sandwiched between the Genesis Invitational and the Cognizant Classic (formerly the Honda Classic), so most of the big names decided to take the week off.
Tony Finau is the clear favorite (+900) at FanDuel, followed by Nicolai Hojgaard (+1200) and Keith Mitchell (+2000).
This will be the third time the Mexico Open has been featured as part of the PGA Tour schedule.
The Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta is a Par 71 that measures 7,456 yards.
It is a beautiful course in Nuevo Vallarta (25 minutes north of Puerto Vallarta) and is only accessible by the world’s longest golf cart suspension bridge.
While it is on the coast, this has more of a Florida feel to it as many of the holes are inland and feature plenty of water hazards.
With fairways 40 yards wide, playable rough and a lot of long holes on the scorecard, this course is a bomber’s paradise.
We’ve seen that play out in the first two events here, as Finau, Jon Rahm, Patrick Rodgers and Cameron Champ all have elite course history.
If a golfer isn’t long off the tee, they better be good with their long irons. In fact, more than 40% of approach shots at this course in 2023 were from beyond 200 yards.
The forecast isn’t calling for wind gusts of more than 8 mph this week, so we should expect some very good scoring conditions.
The winning scores over the last two years at this event have been 17- (2022, Rahm) and 24-under par (2023, Finau).
In addition to long drivers of the ball and good long-iron players, I’m looking for golfers who can make birdies and ones with experience on paspalum greens.
Let’s try to find a winner.
Pendrith has struggled with consistency over the last year, but that hasn’t impacted his upside.
He has played in seven events since the start of October and has finished tied for 10th or better in four of them.
His most-recent start was at Torrey Pines (another bomber friendly course), where he finished T-9 in a very good field.
He’s top 15 in this field in driving distance, he’s excellent with his long irons and he has plenty of experience on paspalum greens.
In his debut here last year, he finished T-30 and had no incoming form to speak of.
This is a fair number given his course fit and the way he has been playing recently.
Rodgers won 11 times in college but has yet to win on the PGA Tour.
He almost picked up his first win last summer at the Barracuda Championship in Truckee, Calif., but his drive in a playoff hole found its way into a divot in the middle of the fairway.
He eventually lost to Akshay Bhatia.
While many like to bet on proven winners, I’m always fine taking a chance on golfers who often find themselves near the top of the leaderboard. Eventually, breaks will go their way.
Rodgers is a bomber off the tee, he’s good with his long irons and he’s an above-average putter.
He has clearly taken a liking to the course, as he has finished in a tie for 10th in both of his past appearances.
The Venezuelan is still working his way back from injury, but we have to assume that he’s feeling good given the fact that he’s already played in four events this year.
After missing the cut in his first three, he gained 7.2 strokes ball-striking and finished T-22 at the WM Phoenix Open.
If you look strictly at driving distance and strokes gained on approach from beyond 200 yards, Vegas is second only to Finau in this field.
The state of his game is somewhat of a question mark, but that’s why we are getting +5000 odds on him this week.
If he continues the solid ball-striking from a couple weeks ago, he could easily find himself in contention Sunday.