The Rockies beat the Mets on Tuesday as home underdogs, 6-3. That result moved Colorado to 25-27 in that role this season entering Wednesday.

If you bet $100 on their moneyline every time the Rockies were home ’dogs, you would be up around $670. 

That aligns with past results — the Rockies are the most-profitable home underdog in baseball since 2005 (305-336, +$4,884).

I’m not exactly sure why the Rocks are so good in Denver, but the altitude must provide some unique home-field advantage.

Additionally, you have to be a good defensive team to patrol the rangy Coors outfield, and the Rockies have an elite defensive outfielder in Brenton Doyle and a solid one in Jake Cave. 

Whenever the Rockies are home underdogs, I’ll heavily consider betting on them. And I don’t mind them Thursday. 

By many metrics, David Peterson (5.30 xERA, 4.56 FIP, 4.44 xFIP, 0.3 fWAR) is a worse pitcher than Austin Gomber (4.83 xERA, 4.91 FIP, 4.31 xFIP, 0.8 fWAR), but Peterson (3.47) sports a much better ERA than Gomber (4.66) because of his home park and some strand luck (81 percent). 

It’s hard to say the Mets are better in the batter’s box or bullpen, but the mile-high air often neutralizes those advantages.

The Rockies are certainly a better defense than the Mets — who rank 14th in Outs Above Average and 25th in Defensive Runs Saved — and that will play in this matchup. 

THE PLAY: Rockies ML (+138, BetRivers)