The Mets host the Pirates at Citi Field on Tuesday for the second game of a three-game set and we’ve got an exciting pitching matchup on our hands. 

Pittsburgh’s Jared Jones is flashing elite stuff in his rookie year – the type of stuff that could make him a future ace. 

Meanwhile, Jose Quintana has posted a rock-solid 3.55 ERA through his first 16 starts in Queens. 

However, I worry about whether Quintana’s success is sustainable. 

(7:10 p.m. ET, SNY)

Through his first three starts in 2024, Quintana pairs his 3.45 ERA with a 6.03 expected ERA. 

Why is that?

It all starts with his fastball mix. Quintana’s sinker and four-seam have lost significant velocity over the past few seasons, so he’s now missing fewer bats and allowing harder contact – the southpaw ranks among the bottom 25 percent of qualified pitchers in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate allowed. 

His inability to force whiffs and weak contact has forced Quintana to nibble around the edges, so he’s walked eight batters in 15 ⅔ innings to start the season. 

Quintana’s ERA hasn’t exploded yet because he’s stranded 85% of runners. Once that number regresses closer to the MLB average (around 70%), more runs will come around and New York’s lefty will lose more games. 

While I project significant negative regression for Quintana, I project significant positive regression for Jones. 

Jones boasts a 149 Stuff+ mark on his upper 90s fastball, which ranks first among starting pitchers this season. The pitch has an excellent ride, and he keeps it in the upper third of the zone, where batters swing right under it for a 21% swinging-strike rate. 

He pairs that fastball with a slider with a 124 Stuff+ mark and a near-50% whiff rate, creating a dangerous two-pitch mix. 

As a result, Jones has struck out 35% of batters in his early career. Even better, he’s only walked 3%, so he’s commanding and controlling well for a rookie. 

Jones throws hard and gives up his fair share of fly balls, so homers will be a problem. However, I hardly expect him to carry a 22% HR-to-fly-ball rate for an entire season, so his current 4.00 ERA is inflated. 

Instead, I believe his 3.40 expected ERA and 2.40 expected FIP are more in line with his potential ace status. Striking out everyone and walking no one is a great way to pitch. 

So, as you probably inferred, I give the Pirates a significant starting pitching advantage Tuesday. 

However, I also give the Pirates a significant bullpen advantage. 

Both teams boast strong relief corps, but the Pirates are slightly more rested. The Mets’ three highest-leverage relievers – Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley – all threw around 30 pitches on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh closer David Bednar hasn’t pitched since Friday, while set-up man Collin Holderman has thrown only 31 pitches over the past week. 

These two lineups project similarly, with both boasting around league-average metrics. Meanwhile, the weather report looks bleak for hitting, as we’re expecting mid-60s temps with winds blowing in toward home plate. As a result, BallParkPal projects a -17% run factor for Tuesday’s game – i.e., we should expect a 17% decrease in the run-scoring environment based on weather conditions. 

Therefore, I’ll back the better starter and more-rested bullpen in what should be a pitcher’s duel at Citi Field. 

Getting the Pirates as an underdog is a bonus. 

Pirates ML (-102, FanDuel) | Play to (-110)