The Mets finally got off the schneid with an 11-4 win against the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday night.
Not only did the victory end a seven-game losing streak, but it vaulted the Mets back into a tie with the Phillies atop the NL East, meaning the winner of Sunday night’s contest will be in sole possession of first place.
The Phillies are slight -118 favorites to get the job done on “Sunday Night Baseball.”
The Mets will send David Peterson to the mound on Sunday opposite fellow southpaw Jesus Luzardo.
Peterson has put up superb numbers in the first half, pitching to a 2.60 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 86 ⅔ innings. The 29-year-old’s underlying numbers also sparkle, as Peterson ranks in the 88th percentile in barrel rate, 95th percentile in groundball percentage, and 95th percentile in pitching run value, per Baseball Savant.
The Phillies are an above-average team when it comes to doing damage against left-handed pitching, but Peterson is not your average southpaw this season.
Peterson and the Mets could have their hands full with Luzardo, too.
The 27-year-old from Lima, Peru, may not have the strongest surface-level numbers, but his advanced metrics are solid.
Luzardo ranks in the 81st percentile in barrel rate, 65th percentile in xERA, and is in the 77th percentile when it comes to whiff rate.
Luzardo’s 2.87 FIP is a run and a half lower than his ERA (4.41), which suggests he’s pitching better than his results suggest. A ridiculously high .373 BABIP is almost certainly the culprit.
These two teams have posted some crooked numbers in the first two games of this pivotal series, but there’s a strong chance that a pitchers’ duel breaks out in the curtain-closer.
Trust both of these starting pitchers to keep the bats quiet enough to get you to the window with an under ticket.
THE PLAY: Under 9.5 (-122, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.