Depending on how you look at it, this is either the best or worst time for the Mets to play a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies.
On one hand, you could say that a series with the Phils is just what the doctor ordered to snap the Mets out of their current funk.
The Amazins have lost six in a row to the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves, which has allowed the Phillies to get on even terms with the Mets (45-30) atop the NL East.
What better opponent to get back on track against than your biggest rival, who just happens to be tied with you for first place right before the midway point of the season?
On the other hand, you could say this is terrible timing, as the Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10, and should be buoyant about their chances of pulling in front of the Mets in the standings.
No matter how you look at it, you’ll need to come to terms with the odds, which have the Phillies as a decided favorite for Game 1 of this pivotal series.
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Mets | +164 |
| Phillies | -196 |
The reason that the Phillies are such a decided favorite is because they have Zack Wheeler on the mound opposite Blade Tidwell, who is making just the second start of his career.
A former second-round pick in 2022, Tidwell has pitched to a 4.76 ERA in 13 outings for Triple-A Syracuse this season. He made his MLB debut on May 4 against the Cardinals, allowing six earned runs on nine hits and three walks in 3 2/3 innings.
Obviously, having Tidwell start a game of this magnitude is not ideal for the Mets, let alone against Wheeler.
The former Met has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since leaving Queens, but he could be putting together his best season yet.
The 35-year-old has pitched to a 2.76 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 88 innings. Wheeler’s peripheral numbers also stand out, as his 11.25 strikeouts per 9 innings would be a career-best, as would his 2.34 xERA.
It may be a bit jarring to see the Phillies close to -200 against a team with the same exact record (and a much better run differential), but this pitching matchup is stacked in the home team’s favor.
As long as Wheeler is on point, the Phils should be able to get separation in this game and get home as comfortable winners.
THE PLAY: Phillies -1.5 (+105, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.