The NL East race is almost certainly over.

Barring an epic collapse, the Phillies have locked up the division title.

That doesn’t make Wednesday’s third matchup in a four-game series any less important, though.

The Mets turn to Clay Holmes, while the Phillies send out NL Cy Young candidate Cristopher Sánchez.

Injuries should poke a hole in the Phillies’ plans at some point in the coming weeks, as Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are on the injured list.

But they have the clear pitching edge here, as Holmes hasn’t come close to Sánchez’s success this year.

Of further concern is the inability of the Mets to hit left-handed pitching.

Their wOBA was .311 vs. lefties entering Tuesday’s 9-3 loss, the 11th-worst mark in MLB.

As much as the Mets expected Cedric Mullins to be a better hitter against left-handed pitching, that hasn’t been the case.

It’s another tough matchup for the Mets and one where they will need Holmes to match Sanchez’s dominance.

I suspect that the Phillies will win, but there’s no value on that side given the odds. Instead, target Under 8 runs in this matchup.

As an additional wager, back Sánchez to go Over his strikeout total.

While the Mets have an excellent lineup, they are still liable to strike out against Sánchez.

The plays: Mets-Phillies Under 8 total runs (-145, BetMGM); Cristopher Sánchez Over 6.5 strikeouts (+125)

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.