After a long wait, Sean Manaea has been excellent for the Mets. 

The southpaw was sidelined in spring training with an oblique strain and was later slowed by a bone fragment in his elbow, but finally made his 2025 debut before the MLB All-Star break. 

He’s been lights out ever since, posting a 2.19 ERA over three starts as the Mets ease him in ahead of the stretch run. 

In 12 ⅓ innings, Manaea has struck out 13.1 batters per nine innings while allowing just 5.8 hits per nine. He’s yielded one run in each of his outings.

The veteran southpaw gets a good matchup Tuesday night on the road against a former team in the Padres, who haven’t hit well this season despite their star-studded lineup. 

San Diego has just a .686 on-base plus slugging against left-handers this season with a 95 wRC+.

Last June, Manaea allowed just one run and four hits over five innings while striking out seven against a similar Padres squad. 

The Padres have been one of the better teams in baseball at avoiding strikeouts against lefties, punching out just 19.2 percent of the time, so I’m targeting another way to bet on Manaea to pitch well Tuesday. 

The Mets have handled Manaea with kid gloves as he builds himself back up, allowing him to throw more than 70 pitches just once – his last time out when he threw 82 pitches over five innings against the Angels.

Manaea might not go deep into this game, but I expect him to pitch well against a light-hitting lineup. 

The play: Sean Manaea to allow Under 5.5 hits (-140, Caesars Sportsbook)

Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.