With the Mets having clinched two victories with walk-off home runs this week, it is an advantageous time to strike underdog value while the iron is hot. 

They snagged back-to-back series before beginning a three-game set Thursday at the Padres, who hold a 4.5-game edge on them in the NL wild-card race.

The Mets swept San Diego by a 10-run margin during a seven-game streak that revitalized their season in June, and took Thursday’s opener, 8-3.

The Padres are 35-19 since that series, and while the Mets have hit their potholes, they were the No. 2 team in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in that window entering Thursday, per FanGraphs. 

Run production and timely hitting has kept the Mets on the playoff brink.

From the start of the early-summer rally to Thursday, the Mets producted 123 weighted runs created plus (wRC+).

Francisco Lindor has also recorded 2.3 bases per game next to Brandon Nimmo’s 1.7 in this time.

Paul Blackburn has three outings with six innings pitched and one earned run allowed in four starts as a Met.

His curveball is putting away at a hitters more than four percent higher rate than last year.

He has a hard-hit percentage more than five percent lower than Padres starter Joe Musgrove, according to Statcast. 

Musgrove grants 1.93 home runs per nine innings at Petco Park.

The Mets are a top-five lineup in long balls, so let’s roll on more Grimace magic out West. 

THE PLAY: Mets (+120, BetMGM)