It’s a pitching mismatch on Thursday afternoon as the Mets host the Nationals on a hot Citi Field afternoon.
Kodai Senga (6-3, 1.59 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Metropolitans against former Braves ace Michael Soroka (3-3, 4.86 ERA).
Senga has looked outright dominant for the Mets for much of the season, developing into a top-of-the-line starter of a rotation that was expected to be a weak spot for the Mets.
Coming into Thursday, the Mets rank No. 1 in team ERA while also being top five in batting average allowed.
The Nationals are unsurprisingly on the opposite spectrum, considering their record is below .500. They’re in the bottom five in ERA allowed (4.88 ERA) as well as a similarly poor WHIP (1.37, sixth worst).
Soroka, who is attempting to come back after several injury-ruined seasons with Atlanta, has added to the futility of this rotation.
The former first-round pick lost the 2020 and 2021 seasons with two torn Achilles injuries, while also missing parts of 2023 and 2024 with shoulder and forearm inflammation.
There is some reason for optimism that Soroka is at least performing better than his inflated ERA would suggest.
Soroka has an xERA (expected earned run average) of 2.99, which is among the best in the league, and his average fastball velocity has increased to 94.2 MPH this year, up substantially from the 92.5 it was when he returned from injury in 2023.
While the Mets’ offense is percolating right now behind a red-hot bat of Juan Soto, there’s reason to believe that they will struggle to score a bit more than they’ve done recently.
Soto mashes Soroka, going 6-for-10 with two home runs against the ex-Bravo, so targeting his props is certainly worth considering.
But for the game, I’d look at the inflated total of 8.5 and bet the under for today’s matinee matchup.
Feel free to target a first-five innings, which is not available at the time of writing, but still a worthy bet if it’s in the 4.5 territory, as I expect.
The Mets are 39-25-3 to the under (60.9 percent win rate), and this afternoon’s matchup is a perfect time to catch two offenses sleepwalking.
PICK: Under 8.5 (-112, FanDuel)
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.