The New York Mets will open the 2023 MLB Season as a slight road favorite in Miami on Thursday afternoon.

Max Scherzer, who posted a 2.29 ERA, 2.87 xERA and 3.23 xFIP with 173 strikeouts, in 145.1 innings of work last season, will get the start for the Mets.

Still, you could make a salient argument that Mad Max is the B-side of a pitching matchup that features the reigning unanimous Cy Young Award winner, Sandy Alcantara, on the other side.

Scherzer and Alcantara both boast Cy Young odds in the single-digits, so it’s no wonder that bookmakers have set the Over/Under for this clash at 6.5 runs.

(4:10 p.m. ET, SNY)

With all the talk about the rule changes leading to more scoring, it will be interesting to see how many times we see totals under 7 runs this season.

From 2017-2019, there were only 55 games with an Over/Under of 6.5 or lower.

In the 2020 shortened season, there were 40 contests that closed under 7 and in 2021 there were 79. That number jumped to 104 in 2022, with the Under cashing 54 times.

If the new ruleset does lead to more scoring, we should see 6.5’s become a rarity like we did six years ago.

At the time of writing there are three Opening Day contests, with the Over/Under sitting at 6.5 on BetRivers.

As for this particular one, there does seem to be some value on the Over.

While both Alcantara and Scherzer are elite starting pitchers, there are some minor red flags if you dig deep.

Alcantara was a beast last season, but he completed 228.2 innings of work and did not look sharp in the World Baseball Classic.

That isn’t to say that Alcantara will struggle in 2023, but when you’re dealing with a total this low, the margins are so fine.

And unlike his opponent, Alcantara isn’t a pitcher who can use strikeouts to get out of trouble.

The 27-year-old is a master at inducing weak contact and groundballs to wriggle out of jams, but it’s fair to expect at least some regression for a pitcher who stranded 78.8% of runners in 2022.

Scherzer may be up there in age, but he’s still one of the best pitchers in baseball until proven otherwise.

That said, Scherzer does tend to get squared up more than other starting pitchers.

The 38-year-old ranked in the 30th percentile in barrel rate in 2022, which is not a great recipe for success when dealing with totals in this range. 

Want to catch a game? The Mets schedule with links to buy tickets can be found here.

There is certainly a decent chance that Scherzer and Alcantara roll through these lineups and keep this game tight, but one or two mistakes from either pitcher should put over bettors in a good spot.

The margins are too fine to go Under 6.5 in this curtain-raiser.

Over 6.5 runs -110 (BetRivers)