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Sep 3, 2025  |  
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NextImg:Mets vs. Marlins player props: MLB Sunday picks, predictions, odds, bets

Recovering from Tommy John surgery takes time, even after getting back on the big league mound. 

Take Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara, who will face the Mets on Sunday in Queens. 

The 2022 National League Cy Young winner has been atrocious this season after undergoing surgery in October 2023 and returning on Opening Day this season, posting a 5.87 ERA. 

But nearly two years after the operation, Alcantara may be showing signs that he’s getting back to normal. 

His 1.80 ERA is excellent, but he’s also shown improvement across the board. 

After a wild streak during the early part of the season, Alcantara has walked just 1.8 per nine innings over his last three outings. 

His strikeouts are back as well, punching out 10.35 per nine innings over that stretch and at least seven in each start. 

With just two homers allowed in those three games, the long ball doesn’t appear to be plaguing him anymore either. 

Marlins baseball pitcher throwing a pitch.
Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) delivers against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning in the second baseball game of a doubleheader, Saturday, Aug. 9, 2025, in Atlanta. AP

Alcantara has had some modest success over the years against the Mets with a 3.10 ERA over 16 career starts versus the Amazin’s. 

In 66 combined career at-bats against Alcantara, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo are hitting just .151 with two home runs. 

Even Juan Soto, who has been facing Alcantara since his days with the Nationals, only has a modest .820 OPS against the right-hander. 

Oddsmakers are pricing Alcantara closer to the near-league-worst pitcher he’s been this season. 

Let’s see if he’s truly figured it out. 

The play: Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-118, FanDuel)

Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.