After starting the year 0-5, the New York Mets have rattled off 12 wins in 16 games, most recently stealing a road series from the ever-dangerous Dodgers. 

They continue their West Coast road trip at Oracle Park on Monday night against a middling Giants team. 

It’s a toss-up as to who wins, but you can bank on a higher-scoring affair. 

We’ll explain why and make a pick.

(9:45 p.m. ET, SNY)

Since the markets opened, money has poured in on the over for this matchup, pushing the total up an entire run. 

The steam is justified.

For starters, the weather should be conducive to a higher-scoring game. Double-digit winds blowing directly out toward left-center field are forecast, perhaps carrying some long fly balls over the fence. 

That could be a problem for Mets starter Jose Quintana, who is getting rather lucky despite allowing plenty of hard contact.

Through four starts and 20 ⅔ innings this season, he’s allowing his highest barrel (7.8%) and hard-hit (45%) rates since 2021. 

As a result, Quintana’s 3.05 ERA has been smoke and mirrors. His expected ERA is 6.50, and his expected FIP is 4.75. 

The primary problem seems to be Quintana’s continued drop in fastball velocity, forcing him to nibble more around the edges.

And as he’s avoided the zone more, his walk rate has skyrocketed, allowing 11 free passes in 20 innings. 

He’s managed to strand more than 85% of runners, but once that number regresses toward the MLB average (between 70% and 72%), his sparkling ERA should skyrocket. 

Ultimately, between his lucky start and poor batted-ball profile, Quintana is overvalued and worth fading. 

Meanwhile, it’s tough to gauge opposing starting pitcher Keaton Winn, but there’s much to like about the 6-foot-4 hard-throwing righty.

He relies heavily on his sinker, which produces plenty of whiffs, chases and ground balls, but pairs that with two upper-90s fastballs (four-seam, sinker) and a slider with solid depth. 

But, surprisingly, Winn hasn’t managed to convert many whiffs into strikeouts, and he’s failed to generate enough ground balls into easy outs. 

The problem is that Winn’s two fastballs are easily hittable despite their velocity. He throws from a very high release point with limited carry and ride, and allows hard contact on those two pitches. 

Winn can’t rely only on his splitter and slider as a starting pitcher, so he’s been knocked around for a 4.50 ERA across 64 MLB innings. He’s barely better than a replacement-level starter, producing 0.4 WAR since being called up from Triple-A. 

9:45 p.m. ET, SNY)

Ultimately, there’s little reason to have much confidence in either starting pitcher on Monday, especially against some of baseball’s hottest bats.

Over the past two weeks, the Mets rank second among MLB lineups in wRC+ (132), while the Giants rank 11th (107). 

The two defenses don’t command much respect, either, as both rank among the bottom-10 MLB fielding units in Defensive Runs Saved. 

The bullpens are excellent and rested, which wouldn’t normally garner much confidence when betting an over. 

However, between two starting pitchers begging for regression, two red-hot lineups, two lousy defenses and a hitter-friendly weather report, I’m willing to take a flier on the total going over this time.

Fanatics is offering it at plus-money.