James Paxton is the most overvalued pitcher in baseball. 

He’s lost two ticks of velocity on his heavily used four-seam fastball, meaning he can’t force whiffs (career-low 8 percent swinging-strike rate), so he’s forced to nibble around the edges, where he’s walked (28) as many batters as he’s struck out (28) across his first 50 innings. 

After posting a 2.58 ERA through his first seven starts, the negative regression train finally pulled into Paxton Station, as the Reds lit him up for eight runs across his past two starts.

More negative regression should come, given his expected ERA (5.47) is nearly two runs higher than his actual (3.49). 

The Mets aren’t a great lineup, but only because they aren’t disciplined.

They’re pulling more hard-hit balls against right-handed pitching lately (50 percent pull rate and 50 percent hard-hit rate over the past two weeks).

Given Paxton can’t miss bats, he should get walloped.

David Peterson is making his 2024 debut.

He’s posted monster strikeout numbers over the past two seasons (28 percent) and pitched well in his minor league rehab starts this month, posting a 1.14 ERA with 35 strikeouts to three walks across 23 innings.

It’s tough fading the Dodgers’ superstar-laden lineup, but they’re slumping against southpaws, posting a measly 64 wRC+ against the side over the past two weeks (23rd in MLB). 

I love the Mets’ bullpen, which leads all relief corps in Stuff+ (111) and strikeout rate (28 percent).

Meanwhile, the Dodgers bullpen has posted a 4.05 SIERA and 10 percent walk rate over the past two weeks. 

The play: Mets moneyline (+110, BetMGM Sportsbook)