I like betting on Ryne Nelson.

He doesn’t blow you away, but he’s a rock-solid young arm (4.29 ERA, 4.03 xERA, 3.61 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 2.1 WAR) who gives his team a chance to win.

Considering how good the Diamondbacks are, Arizona has won 11 of Nelson’s 14 starts dating back to the start of June.

The Mets have won 12 of David Peterson’s 15 starts this season, but I expect that to change.

He has posted a 2.85 ERA, but that’s almost entirely because of an 82 percent strand rate.

As that regresses toward the league average (72 percent), Peterson should start pitching closer to his expected run indicators (5.28 xERA, 4.20 FIP, 4.41 xFIP).

The Snakes can force regression upon Peterson.

They’re the hottest lineup in baseball over the past month (.875 OPS, 141 wRC+) and a top-five lineup against lefties on the year (.769 OPS, 113 wRC+).

While the Mets are a top-10 lineup in their own right, they’re not as loaded as the Diamondbacks.

And of greater importance, I give a considerable bullpen and defensive matchup to Arizona.

The Diamondbacks have been the league’s second-best bullpen since adding A.J. Puk to the fold (3.19 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 1.9 WAR), who has been a crucial left-handed reliever given Joe Mantiply’s struggles.

Puk has allowed one earned run with 19 strikeouts in 13 innings with Arizona.

The Diamondbacks also grade out as a top-five defensive team by Defensive Runs Saved (+46) and Outs Above Average (+28).

Conversely, the Mets are average-to-below-average in the bullpen (4.01 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 2.3 WAR) and on defense (-25 DRS, +1 OAA).

The play: Diamondbacks (-116, Caesars Sportsbook)