


The Cardinals and the Mets are two of MLB’s most disappointing teams, with both severely underperforming their lofty preseason expectations and high payrolls.
The one similarity between the two? Poor pitching.
And both trotting out two very lackluster starting pitchers Friday night at Citi Field.
St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas boasts an expected ERA near 5.00. He’s got a very below-average fastball, a low strikeout rate (17.6 percent) and a poor batted-ball profile.
Meanwhile, the Mets’ Tylor Megill is one of baseball’s few starting pitchers with exactly 0.0 FanGraphs WAR — in other words, he’s a replacement-level pitcher.
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These two offenses are finicky but ultimately effective.
The Cardinals boast a lineup full of hard-hitters, thus ranking toward the top of the league in expected wOBA (.332) and barrel rate (9.2 percent).
Meanwhile, the Mets grind down opposing pitchers with a high contact rate (76.2 percent), thus avoiding strikeouts (20.5 percent) while putting the ball in play.
Add in two hurting bullpens and two bottom-10 defenses (by Defensive Runs Saved), and run prevention will be very difficult.
The over has hit in six of the past 10 meetings between the Cardinals and Mets, so I’m willing to bet it happens one more time.
Over 8.5 runs (-115, FanDuel)