The Mets pulled off a wild victory Monday against the divisional rival Braves, winning 8-7 thanks to a late-game rally emphasized by an eighth-inning home run from DJ Stewart. 

Surprisingly, the Mets are 3-1 away from Queens this year. 

But they’ll have to battle the often unstoppable Braves again Tuesday night behind Adrian Houser on the mound.

Following Spencer Strider’s injury, the Braves are short on pitching depth, so Reynaldo Lopez will make his second start this year.

I am surprisingly bullish on this pitching matchup, and I think the windy conditions will contribute to a lower-scoring ball game.  

(7:20 p.m. ET, SNY)

Lopez began his career as a starter with the Nationals and White Sox, starting 65 games from 2018-19.

But, eventually, his fastball-slider mix profiled better as a reliever and he became one of the league’s best in the post-COVID years. 

Something to watch out for when watching Lopez is his velocity. He’s added some ticks over the past few years, reaching an average of 98 mph in 2023. It was a great pitch last season, checking in with a 124 Stuff+ mark.

His slider is also dependable, although he can sometimes lose it into the dirt, leading to a relatively high walk rate (12% in 2023). 

His first start this year was interesting. He dialed back the velo on his fastball but still managed to strike out five White Sox over six innings, allowing only one run on four hits and two walks.

He still recorded an above-average Stuff+ rating on his slider (107), so I’m hopeful for his two-pitch combination future, especially on a winning team with a good defense. 

Meanwhile, Adrian Houser is as steady as they come. He went at least five innings in 15 of his 21 starts for the Brewers last season, and he started 2024 with a five-inning, one-run outing against Detroit. 

Houser is a pitch-to-contact sinkerballer who doesn’t have the stuff to make him a front-end rotation piece. But he’ll always force enough ground-balls to keep him afloat – he’s above 50% for his career.

Lopez should hang with the Mets, who have struggled in the early going, posting an 81 wRC+ in the early season. They profile better against righties but struggle against fastball-slider mixes, posting -15.9 weighted runs created against the mix last year. 

I’m unsure if Houser can hang with the Braves, as he’s struggled against them in the past, allowing nine earned over 10 innings in two starts against Atlanta last season. 

However, the weather should suppress run production. 

The report calls for cooler, mid-60s temperatures and stiff breezes coming straight in from left-center field. BallParkPal’s park factors call for a -11% home run factor and a -7% run factor, meaning the run-scoring environment is much lower than usual. 

The weather has activated one of our Action Network PRO betting systems, Wind Blowing In. When the wind direction is toward home plate, Unders are 1165-965-102 since 2005, producing over 120 units of profit at a 5.5% ROI.

Additionally, both bullpens should be rested. New York’s top three relievers rested, and Atlanta’s Raisel Iglesias hasn’t pitched since Saturday. 

Between the poor weather, rested relievers and two starters I’m relatively bullish on, I’m willing to take my shot with an Under 9.5, especially when our Action Network PRO model projects only nine runs for the game.

Under 9.5 (-110, Caesars)