We have reached the point in the offseason where it’s probably safe to say Max Scherzer was correct in his assessment of the Mets’ plan for 2024.
Before he waived his no-trade clause last summer to depart for Texas, the three-time Cy Young award winner said he was agreeing to the deal because team brass told him the Mets were more focused on 2025 and beyond than this coming season. Scherzer, with only an option year remaining on his contract, didn’t have the luxury of waiting around to contend for the World Series.
The Mets promptly went into damage control mode, assuring the season-ticket holders in a letter that the plan was to compete this year. Conspiracy theories soon formed that team owner Steve Cohen and general manager Billy Eppler had only told Scherzer the Mets were de-emphasizing the coming season so the right-hander would agree to the trade.
As the season concluded there seemed to be a general sense Cohen would again spend to bring marquee players to Citi Field. The richest owner in the sport wouldn’t completely hit the decelerator, right?
The Mets took their shot on Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto and missed, after deciding not to offer a contract to Shohei Ohtani.
Otherwise, it’s largely been crickets.
With roughly five weeks remaining before pitchers and catchers report to Port St. Lucie, Fla., the primary yield from new president of baseball operations David Stearns has been Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Adrian Houser, Tyrone Taylor and Jorge Lopez.
In other words, Scherzer was right.
The Mets, of course, could still surprise us with a splashy move, but at this point there hasn’t been anything connecting the team with the major remaining free agents, a group that includes Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Josh Hader.
There will likely be additional moves before spring training — the team still could potentially add another starting pitcher, and a bat and reliever seem highly plausible — but it’s hard to say this has been anything other than a blah winter for the Mets.
It’s especially true when you consider the team the Mets aspire to become, a certain National League franchise in Southern California, became the Showtime Dodgers. It’s a team that has spent over $1 billion in long-term contracts this winter, with Ohtani and Yamamoto as the primary recipients.
Within the NL East, the Braves are thinking big with the addition of Chris Sale, who brings another ace to a team that already has studs in Spencer Strider and Max Fried. Across town, the Yankees have added Juan Soto to a lineup that already included Aaron Judge.
The flip side is the Mets won the offseason last year (has anybody seen that trophy?) and by June were trying to figure out how to fix a gigantic mess. In this case, why commit long term to players unless you are convinced they will perform at a reasonable level for an extended stretch?
Yamamoto, at 25 years old, certainly fit the bill as somebody worth pursuing for the long term. It’s more difficult trying to say the same for older pitchers.
Otherwise, there is possibly something to be said for building a rotation around relatively inexpensive pitchers on short contracts until you can develop your own crop. Manaea and Severino are far from headliners at this point in their respective careers, but if healthy can potentially provide the team with quality innings.
Much of the intrigue surrounds Manaea, a left-hander who increased his velocity last season and added a sweeper to his arsenal. The concern on Manaea is how he might respond to New York after a career spent entirely on the West Coast, with the A’s, Padres and Giants. And when Manaea hasn’t had his velocity, his secondary pitches haven’t been good enough to compensate.
Are the Mets good enough, as presently constructed, to compete in 2024? That probably depends on your definition of “compete.” If it’s finishing above .500 and battling for a wild card, why not?
Even so, kudos to Scherzer for accurately portraying what the Mets had in mind for this winter before he left.