Folks around the game are starting to think the Mets have a better than reasonable chance to sign star managerial free agent Craig Counsell away from his hometown Brewers. He deferred extension talks in spring with Milwaukee and hasn’t re-upped to date, and depending who you talk to, Counsell and the Brewers are either not seriously talking yet, or not quite progressing.
Which might be a good sign — for the Mets, anyway.
“If he was going to stay, they’d already have a deal,” opined one NL executive.
Counsell has proven he can win in baseball’s smallest market, joining the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts as the only managers to posting at least 86 victories the last six full seasons. But he won two World Series as a player (one with the Marlins, the other with the Diamondbacks) and may feel he has a better chance in Queens.
While the Brewers were significantly better than the Mets this year and also have a top-five system, they have three stars going into their walk year — Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff (who could miss all of 2024) and Willy Adames. Plus, the NL Central, which they have dominated, is getting better, with the Cubs and especially the Reds on the upswing.
“The Brewers’ arrow is pointing down a little bit,” one other rival executive says.
While conventional wisdom says Counsell comes to New York — he has a solid working relationship with new Mets honcho David Stearns and the money likely will be better (one person guessed double the $3.5 million he made in 2023) — the pull back home must be strong. Whitefish Bay, Wis., is not only where he grew up and lives but where his two daughters go to high school (plus, his two sons play in the Big Ten at Michigan and Minnesota). Which is why the Mets will need a real list in case the presumed top target stays in Milwaukee.
There are no guarantees. Call this the “in-case” managerial roster:
1. Dusty Baker: He’s done it all and headed for the Hall, but word is he’s continuing to be frustrated by battles with the Houston front office over analytics (their love of it, his skepticism). He does apparently make out the lineup cards and is still playing Martin Maldonado every day when the front office surely prefers the better hitting Yainer Diaz. Cooperstown-bound but may not fit the analytically driven Mets.
2. Bob Melvin: The Padres say he’s staying, but word is he and GM A.J. Preller barely spoke in a season of underachievement. One rival exec suggested it looked like they kept him because didn’t want a “Bruce Bochy 2” situation after the Giants let go Gabe Kapler early, which may have been taken as a signal they wanted Melvin. He’s close to Counsell but probably fits San Francisco better since he has ties to Giants honcho Farhan Zaidi and prefers to spring in Arizona (he picked the Padres over the Mets two years ago).
3. A.J. Hinch: They say he’s happy with the improving Tigers but was hired by the previous regime and is close to Stearns from Astros days.
4. Walt Weiss: The former Rockies manager is winning raves as a Braves coach. The Suffern product has the personality for New York.
5. Pat Murphy: Counsell’s right-hand man in Milwaukee (and his head coach at Notre Dame) and former Padres interim once had three Mets interviews and was a finalist for the job that went to Carlos Beltran. He could also accompany Counsell to New York as his bench coach, or perhaps replace him in Milwaukee.
6. Gabe Kapler: Had that brilliant first year in San Francisco and has some links to Stearns through mutual acquaintance. Probably a long shot.
7. Brad Ausmus: The Mets could make it an all Ivy League leadership group. The Dartmouth man and ex-Tigers manager had an oddly quick Anaheim tenure and would like another chance.
8. Joe Espada: The Astros coach should be hot name anywhere but would seem to be a logical Baker replacement in Houston.
9. Mark DeRosa: The energetic MLB Network host took on the impossible task of managing the World Baseball Classic squad. He once interviewed for the Mets job that went to Mickey Callaway. Also a UPenn grad (like Steve Cohen).
10. Will Venable: The Rangers bench coach and another Ivy Leaguer (Princeton) is a candidate in Cleveland (and probably elsewhere).
11. Don Kelly: The Pirates’ bench coach is widely respected.
12. George Lombard: Longtime Tigers coach has the personality for the job and will get one eventually. Son was the No. 1 pick of the Yankees this year.
13. Ray Montgomery: The Angels coach worked in Stearns’ front office in Milwaukee.
14. Eric Chavez: He has good potential but he was a Billy Eppler guy, so that link is gone.
15. Carlos Beltran: The Mets exec still hasn’t managed a game. He was brought here by Eppler and is probably a better fit for a previous regime.