As America kicks off its 2024 presidential campaign, Russia will soon follow suit with a vote for its top leader scheduled for March of next year. Russian President Vladmir Putin may not yet have announced he’s seeking another term, but an internal Kremlin electoral group is working on the assumption that Vlad will be running, according to the Russian business daily Kommersant, which cited sources close to Putin’s administration.

But Russian presidential elections are not exactly like those in the US.

Normally, there’s no mystery around who wins – Putin – and who loses, everyone else.  This will be the case again in 2024 – unless, of course, Putin chooses otherwise.

For the Russian president, the election is not so much a contest as it is a tool – with Putin the only player who really matters. He has three clear options for 2024. The first is to run for re-election and retain the presidency. The second, to sit out the race and pave the way for a formal successor. The third – anoint some distant runner-up as prime minister who will one day succeed him at the presidency. 

Putin is, with the help of consultants, developing an “ideological platform” for his campaign, according to Kommersant, and has until December to make a final decision.  But faced with the dismal progress of the war in Ukraine, he could very well decide that it’s time for an exit – and look to someone else to finish the beleaguered conflict he started.

Who is this character Putin might allow to take over the reins – much the same way that Boris Yeltsin relinquished the presidency to Putin in 1999 in order to avoid corruption charges?

His name is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the commander of the Wagner mercenary squad, known for its battlefield brutality and capture of Bakhmut in Ukraine last month.   Also called “Putin’s chef,” Prigozhin – who got his start in the catering business – once served meals to the Kremlin. It’s a modest beginning with major meaning: Famously fearful of being poisoned at mealtime, Putin clearly trusts Prigozhin completely.

A former hotdog salesman and convicted criminal, Prigozhin has made headlines worldwide thanks to his bombastic style and profanity-laced videos blasting Russian military leaders. In early May, the Wagner Group warlord was filmed cursing out Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff, as he walked among the bodies of his dead fighters in Bakhmut. Prigozhin called these top generals “scumbags” who refused him weapons, ranting that “those who don’t give us ammunition will burn in hell eating their guts.” 

Prigozhin has advocated for a much tougher stance in Ukraine, calling last week for a full civilian mobilization if the current “special operation” drags on. Equally notable, Prigozhin makes no secret of his access to Putin. In a recent interview to media group “Patriot,” he claimed he informs the “higher leadership” – a k a Putin – about “all existing problems” with little in the form of “push back” from the “Supreme Commander.” 

Prigozhin has clearly hinted that he’s eyeing the presidency. In a March 14 interview with leading Russian media outlets controlled by Putin, Prigozhin  blasted the Russian military establishment, contrasting himself and his fighters with the “useless” bureaucrats in the Russian defense structure who “shuffle papers” and “interfere with war.” Prigozhin suggested that he is suited for the role of a wartime commander much more than “uniformed bureaucrats”.

The interview looked and sounded a lot like a campaign speech. It also looked and sounded eerily similar to Putin himself. Like the president, Prigozhin presented himself as the defender of the common folk who are being cheated by the bureaucracy. “How is the life of an army general worth more than the life of a fighter? What is the difference,” he stated.

The setting also mimicked Putin’s style. Much like his boss, Prigozhin sat at a mahogany desk, directly facing pro-Kremlin journalists. In place of his typical uniform of combat boots and camouflage, Prigozhin was dressed in a white collared shirt and navy blue full-zip sweater – a look eerily reminiscent of Putin’s luxe-despot get-up during his now infamous war “rally” just weeks after invading Ukraine. Lest his ambitions be misinterpreted, Prigozhin positioned himself against a background of a world map. 

Prigozhin is almost certainly orchestrating these maneuvers with the consent – if not endorsement – of Putin. In February, for instance, Russia’s state news agency, Interfax, carried a piece titled “Yevgeny Prigozhin, for the first time, joined the list of top ten media personalities.” Putin, of course, remained at number 1. But Prigozhin’s inclusion was all the more notable considering that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu – the prime target of Prigozhin’s anti-establishment rants – dropped off the top 10 list.

Putin’s relationship with Prigozhin spans at least two decades. The two are eerily similar: Both raised in working-class St. Petersburg neighborhoods and both admirers of barbaric Russian dictators like Stalin. Both are highly risk tolerant, brutal and control-freaks who style themselves as problem-solvers and effective communicators. Prigozhin is actually an even rougher and more sinister version of Putin, perhaps that’s why Vlad let Zhenya serve him dinner. 

And that’s why Putin would allow Prigozhin to become king: because not only would Prigozhin press for a victory in Ukraine, he would ensure a comfortable retirement for Putin instead of a trip to the guillotine. 

Rebekah Koffler is the president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, a former DIA intelligence officer, and the author of “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America.” Twitter: @Rebekah0132