It’s less than 10 weeks ’til the June 24 primary — which for once definitely won’t settle the near-certain winner come November in what’s set to be the wildest New York mayoral race in decades.
The Democratic primary campaign is so far dominated by ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s drive for redemption and radical Zohran Mamdani’s surge to the top of the far-left pack — a dual dynamic that serves both of them by letting each pose as the best hope to block the other one.
Cuomo’s other strategy has been to leverage his name recognition into looking inevitable; that’s encouraged a whole pack of political rats to jump onto what seems the rising ship.
Yet his support is a mile wide and an inch deep: The instant he doesn’t seem the surest thing, many of the rats will jump to whatever better opportunity presents itself.
Mamdani, meanwhile, offers all the performative passion for free stuff and Israel-bashing that Democratic Socialist hipsters love to hear — no matter that the nepo baby’s never really done anything.
The rest of the pack is so far struggling for any oxygen, caught somewhere in the middle between Cuomo’s cynical transactionalism and Mamdani’s ideological fervor.
But Scott Stringer beat the last scandal-slain governor trying to bounce back in a city race, edging out Eliot Spitzer in the 2013 comptroller primary.
And Zellnor Myrie, Jessica Ramos and others may yet find more traction on the left by actually mixing ideals with an awareness of what’s remotely practical. Even Brad Lander expects to boast fund-raising prowess to match the two front-runners.
Plus, primaries are low-turnout: That may favor Mamdani’s fervor or Cuomo’s edge with the political machines — but it allows any candidate with a solid base to hope, and no one really knows if ranked-choice voting could upend expectations.
In three months, anything can happen — and then it’s likely a four-way race.
If none of its picks grabs the Democratic nomination, the Working Families Party can try again in the general — and surely will if Cuomo is on the ballot, since as gov he did his best to kill the WFP.
Normally, the Working Families line alone couldn’t get a fifth of the citywide vote, but in a four-way race and a leap from 20% to 26% is far from impossible.
Mayor Eric Adams, driven out of the Democratic race by now-tossed federal charges and the party’s leftward shift, has already declared an independent candidacy — and seems to be getting his groove back.
Yes, Adams’ polling isn’t great now, but he has long weeks to turn things around — and his appeal is sure to rise once the voters look at the alternatives.
And even if Adams sinks and so opts to fold his hand, Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch might yet pick up the flag of public safety in her own independent run: Her sterling record of successful public service is only one of the factors that would instantly make her a serious contender.
Meanwhile, Curtis Sliwa is cruising to the Republican nomination, which likely guarantees a third of the vote come Election Day.
That could carry the field in a three- or four-way race, and not being a lost cause would bring Sliwa — easily the best communicator in the entire field — enough donations to mount the most serious local GOP campaign since Mike Bloomberg quit pretending to be a Republican.
You have every right to feel unnerved: The future of New York City is on the line, yet the angles are impossible to calculate — and will stay that way for months.