Of all the Game 1 NBA playoff results over the weekend, the first-round series opener between the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers deviated the most from what the betting markets and the public expected.
Dallas was favored by 3.5 points on the road and the total in the Clippers’ 109-97 victory was more than 15 points lower than the 221.5 sportsbooks projected.
This was also with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combining for 64 points, and James Harden going off for 28 for Los Angeles.
How will the Mavericks bounce back after such an ugly playoff opener? Do they just need to shake off some rust, or was it a sign of things to come?
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks | -1.5 (-110) | -120 | o216.5 (-110) |
| Clippers | +1.5 (-110) | +100 | u216.5 (-110) |
6 p.m. ET, TNT
After what we saw in Game 1, the point spread or moneyline odds are just too murky to confidently pick one side.
Los Angeles being a home underdog again seems strange, even with Kawhi Leonard exepcted to miss his second straight game in the series.
But Dallas has the best player in the game, so there are legitimate reasons to doubt the Clippers
However, on Tuesday night, I am quite confident in the Mavs and Clippers hitting the under of 216.5 points.
The fact that Doncic and Irving both surpassed 30 points on Sunday and the game still wasn’t close to going over should be telling.
Are they both scoring 40 on Tuesday? Doubtful.
And even if Doncic pops off for a huge game, that probably means Irving will be more of a secondary option and score less.
I would also expect a heightened defensive effort from Dallas in a more desperate situation in trying to avoid an 0-2 series hole. They can’t afford to let the Clippers build a big lead once again.
As for the Clippers, I would anticipate a similar defensive game plan to what we saw in Game 1.
Ivica Zubac was excellent as an interior defender on Sunday, and if the Mavericks alter their lineup to counter Zubac, look for Tyronn Lue to respond with quick in-game adjustments.
There are two other factors that make me lean toward the under.
Through three days of postseason play, only one game has reached even 217 points. This is probably due to more detailed defensive game plans and the refs allowing more physicality, so it’s something to consider.
The public also loves the over in this game. About 70% of bettors are rolling with the over, and it’s usually a good strategy to fade the public.
These teams have too much talent for this to be a classic rock fight, but the total feels too high.
Take the under Tuesday night in Los Angeles.