One of the easiest acts in baseball is to spend someone else’s money. Or trade another team’s prospects.
It all is easier when it is not yours. It is all simpler when you do not know every budgetary block from ownership or just what the trade requests was from another club or just who has the loudest voice in the room when it comes to timing whether to go for it or not.
So I concede the following is from the outside looking in — with the guidance of speaking to lots of folks in the game and asking their opinion as well. That was my way of tip-toeing into the offseasons I did not like.
I am with many in not understanding exactly what the Red Sox are doing. One owner, Tom Werner, promised a “full-throttle” approach to the offseason, only to deliver a milquetoast, disinterested approach to the major league roster.
I think the Cardinals have added a lot of age with Matt Carpenter, Brandon Crawford, Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn — giving them seven players 35 or older and four more who will be in their age-32 or older campaign — while not really upgrading their rotation enough.
And I am not really sure I will ever understand not having much to spend in free agency and Pittsburgh investing $10.5 million in Aroldis Chapman with the hope, what? He stays healthy enough and productive enough that you can repeat what the Royals did last year and trade him for a potential upside play like Cole Ragans? And I felt that way about doing this with such an on/off-field high-wire act like Chapman even before he went viral in the past few days.
But the offseason that sticks with me is that of the Mariners. Because Seattle has the equivalent of the high-end quarterback on a rookie scale in the NFL. That is when — before that quarterback’s contract blows up — that you have to fortify left tackle and a game-changing receiver and a lockdown cornerback and a harassing pass rusher.
The Mariners have that with their rotation with five impressive arms in which three have not reached arbitration (George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo), one has (Logan Gilbert at $4.05 million) and one is on a team-friendly deal in which Luis Castillo is in Season 2 of a five-year, $108 million pact. Just as an aside, do I think Kirby can win the AL Cy Young this year? Yes. Yes, I do.
Now, to be fair, Seattle had the cost of Robbie Ray, who was about to enter Season 3 of a five-year, $115 million pact in which he missed most of last season and probably will miss most of this one following elbow surgery. But the Mariners defrayed a lot of the cost by trading Ray to the Giants, receiving Mitch Haniger then redirecting Anthony DeSclafani to the Twins.
And besides, if you want to extend the quarterback analogy further, the Mariners also have three up-the-middle players in catcher Cal Raleigh (not yet arbitration), shortstop J.P. Crawford ($10 million in Season 3 of a five-year, $51 million deal) and center fielder Julio Rodriguez ($10 million in Season 2 of a 12-year, $209.3 million extension) who range from above average to one of the game’s best players in J-Rod.
So the Mariners have a dream of up-the-middle positions and rotation players all better than average on favorable contracts in 2024. But they are at least a bat short.
In a text message response, Seattle GM Justin Hollander said, “We are happy with our adds of [Mitch] Garver, Jorge [Polanco], Haniger, [Luke] Raley and [Luis] Urias on the offensive end. I respect that others may see it differently.”
Those are good supplementary players, but Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez went out the door — two power guys, but also two guys who struck out just as much as anyone in the sport.
This was not a good offseason to be looking for the kind of bat or two that creates fear. No one was beating the Dodgers to Shohei Ohtani. Seattle is not tactically built to deal for Juan Soto in his walk year. Cody Bellinger’s lack of huge exit velocity scared a lot of teams in the industry. Matt Chapman was a version of Suarez. So I don’t want to do the cable scream inanity of just act like there is a Hitter Store that the Mariners could have gone to in order to find that bat.
And yet …
This is where teams do not broadcast what they do, and the White Sox have indicated they are not trading Luis Robert Jr. — at least not currently. But do I think the Mariners should have had Chicago GM Chris Getz on endless loop? Yep. The idea of an outfield with two all-around brilliant center fielders in J-Rod and Robert would be fierce.
So if he ever does become available or someone like this (a positional star in his prime with lots of control), I just think the Mariners have to throw off their cloak of caution.
In wrapping up last season, when his team missed the playoffs by two games, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said he didn’t go for it at the trade deadline because, “If what you’re doing is focusing year to year on, ‘What do we have to do to win the World Series this year?’ You might be one of the teams that’s laying in the mud and can’t get up for another decade.”
He cited a desire to have a .540 winning percentage for a decade so that the team is constantly in play for the playoffs. But this organization has never been to a World Series. They have made the playoffs once since 2001. At some point the well conceived logic has to be holstered and a go-for-it fervor has to win out, especially when you possess the favorable pay-talent combo up the middle and on the mound.
At this moment, Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs projects Seattle for 84-85 wins, or a winning percentage below .530. The Mariners have dropped their payroll for luxury-tax purposes by more than $20 million.
Thus, what Seattle has failed to do in the offseason — capitalize on this moment — must be accomplished between now and the trade deadline.