There are a lot of similarities between LSU and Clemson. They both play in stadiums monikered as “Death Valley.” They have the same Tigers nickname. And they have two of the Heisman favorites playing quarterback.
Both teams also come into the 2025 college football season ranked inside the top 10, with Clemson sitting at No. 4 in the country and LSU at No. 9.
It’s no wonder, then, that the betting odds for the Week 1 encounter between LSU and Clemson are razor tight.
Clemson is a 3.5-point favorite at bet365 sportsbook, with the odds trending towards 4.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | +3.5 | +155 | O57.5 (-110) |
| Clemson | -3.5 | -185 | U57.5 (-110) |
This is Year 4 for Brian Kelly at LSU, and so far, the returns on the Kelly era are a mixed bag.
Kelly is 29-11 overall and 17-7 in the SEC, which paints the Bayou Bengals as a good, but not elite team. That’s not why you get paid the big bucks in Baton Rouge.
One of the biggest problems for Kelly has been his 0-3 record in Week 1 while in charge of LSU. The Tigers lost to Florida State in 2022 and 2023, and then dropped a heartbreaker against USC last year.
Falling to Clemson, even as a road underdog, would really turn up the heat on Kelly immediately.
The SEC is a gauntlet, and starting your season off on the road against the No. 4 team in the country is a tough ask, but Kelly is running out of excuses, especially since he got a huge boost by the somewhat surprising return of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, a shoo-in to be one of the first picks in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The supporting cast around Nussmeier also looks splendid, and could be the best in the country if Nic Anderson, Trey’Dez Green and Chris Hilton Jr. come close to their ceiling.
LSU should score plenty this season, but that’s never been the issue with Kelly’s tenure in The Red Stick. The problems have mostly been on the other side of the ball.
The Bayou Bengals did improve defensively in Blake Baker’s first year, but they still came up short in too many big moments, including in Week 1 against USC.
If you believe that Baker’s defense gets better in Year 2 of his tenure, you’d have LSU as a title contender. If you think they’ll plateau or decline, expect another season of highs and lows.
Clemson will provide a trial by fire for this defense right out of the gates. The offense, led by quarterback Cade Klubnik, is a unicorn in college football these days. It is full of juniors and seniors who have been in the same program their entire career.
The biggest strength for Dabo Swinney’s team is likely its offensive line, which should give Klubnik plenty of time and space to do what he does best, which is manage the game in an efficient manner.
The problem is that Clemson doesn’t really strike fear into opponents as a big-play offense, which was a big part of the issue for LSU over the past few seasons.
The offense should fare just fine against LSU, but it doesn’t feel as safe to project the same for the defense.
Clemson finished 51st in success rate on defense last year, and was “just” 29th by Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranking, which is a catch-all statistic
That may sound like making a big deal out of nothing, but the defense isn’t going up against a normal offense on Saturday. They’re taking on what could be the most prolific unit in the country.
Clemson comes into the season with a lot of hype, but some of that stems from their environment. They are clearly the best team in the ACC, but if you put them in the SEC, they’d be viewed similarly to their opponents on Saturday.
That makes this one feel like a coin flip, so I’ll take the points.
The Play: LSU +4 (DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.