What many may have perceived as a Super Bowl preview will be served with a pair of 1-1 records and a 4.5-point spread in just Week 3. 

Since opening, that line has moved in Baltimore’s direction by a point after Lamar Jackson’s trailblazing first two performances that made for seven total touchdowns, zero interceptions and a No. 1 overall 83.3 QBR.

Behind him at No. 2 is everyone’s favorite renaissance story Jared Goff. For as efficient as Jackson has been, he is not the sole reason I’ll be laying the points on Monday night.

Perhaps the departure of both coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn left a heavier toll than we gave Dan Campbell’s operation credit for. Perhaps we’re jumping to conclusions, though the inundation of defensive injuries last year left clear scars in addition to a revamped offensive line that has been nothing short of discombobulated.

The offense responded to their Week 1 chagrin by posting 52 points, but that was against the Bears. If I’m being honest, my enthusiasm for the 2025 Lions’ elite potential hit the skids when they fell to Washington by two touchdowns in the playoffs.

Jackson’s matchup-proof status shepherds a Ravens offense that has been comically effective in yards per play with a league-leading 6.5.

Add in the fact that Baltimore doubles Detroit’s EPA rating (No. 1 in the NFL) and I project a defense that’s allowed a bottom-10 11.4 yards per pass completion to welcome a flashy showing from No. 8.

If that’s not enough to grease Jackson’s tires, Detroit’s adjusting defense has also lacked consistent pressure (No. 25 in pressure rate) and sack production (only four total).

There’s only so much Detroit’s offense can compensate for against one of the game’s most complete teams — and player.

THE PLAY: Ravens -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.