So, we’ve got Liberty, FAU, and Charleston playing a little round-robin in Charleston this weekend for the Field of 68 Tip-off.

It should be a fun event, especially for mid-major basketball lovers like myself. 

But this puts Liberty in a brutal situational spot.

The Flames lost 83-58 in a physical, demanding game against top-dog FAU on Thursday night and now play Charleston on Friday night.

Meanwhile, the Cougars didn’t play Thursday and will be on five days rest after beating Kent State last Sunday. 

I think Charleston can catch an exhausted Liberty team off balance. 

(via BetMGM)

There’s no way to sugarcoat it. Stopping Liberty is a tough ask. 

The Flames have been Flamethrowers, leading the nation in eFG% (62.1%) and ShotQuality half-court PPP (1.13). They’re scoring 85 points per game despite playing at a sub-300 tempo. 

It’ll be especially tough for Charleston to stop Liberty if the Cougs keep playing horrendous defense. They’re 227th in eFG% allowed (51.3%) and 263rd in PPP allowed (.91). 

But these are two 3-point-reliant teams, each ranking top-20 in 3-point rate. And both are due for some shooting regression to the mean. 

Starting with Charleston.

ShotQuality projects the Cougars should be shooting 34% from 3 instead of 27% based on the “quality” of attempts. 

Synergy confirms that claim. The Cougs rank in the 11th percentile of D-I teams in unguarded catch-and-shoot PPP (.85). They’ll make more open jumpers going forward. 

Meanwhile, ShotQuality projects that Liberty should be shooting 36% from deep instead of 40% and Flames’ opponents should be hitting 34% from 3 instead of 28%, based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed. 

And, per Synergy, Liberty ranks in the 89th percentile of teams in guarded catch-and-shoot PPP (1.2). The Flames should miss more tough jumpers from now on. 

This means two things. 

First, Liberty is likely a tad overvalued in the market, while Charleston is a tad undervalued, compared to the true talent level. Projection systems tend to agree, with the ShotQualityBets model projecting Liberty as a three-point favorite and BarTorvik pegging the Flames as a four-point favorite. 

Second, I hope that with a substantial rest advantage one way we’ll see this regression naturally take place. 

Aside from shooting regression and rest advantage, there is one schematic matchup I’m targeting with Charleston. 

The Cougars like to hit the post, dishing the ball inside to 6-foot-10 big man Ante Brzovic. 

Meanwhile, Liberty’s post defense is trash, with the Flames ranking in the 12th percentile of D-I teams in post-up PPP allowed (1.05). 

And Brzovic will enjoy a considerable size advantage here, as Liberty doesn’t have a single player above 6-foot-7 on the roster. 

While Liberty will be 3-point reliant and due for regression, Charleston will have a more accessible avenue to offense behind these post buckets. 

Between the situational rest advantage, shooting regression and schematic advantages, I expect the Cougs to keep this one close. 

If Liberty gets hot from 3, we’re cooked but I’m willing to bet that doesn’t happen.

Charleston +7 (-110) at Caesars | Play to +6.5 (-110)