The Home Run Derby “curse” is a persistent myth in fantasy baseball circles, suggesting that winners of the annual slugfest see a dip in performance in the second half due to disrupted swings or plate discipline.
The theory goes that the high-intensity, maximum-effort swings in the Derby throw off a player’s mechanics, leading to slumps. However, a closer look at the past four Derby winners debunks this notion. Data shows that the curse is largely overstated, and Seattle’s Cal Raleigh remains a strong power asset for fantasy managers in the second half of 2025.
Let’s begin with last season’s winner, Teoscar Hernández, who stepped into the Derby after batting .261 with 19 home runs and 62 RBIs in the first half of the season. He finished the first round with 19 homers, won a swing-off in Round 2 to advance to the finals, then narrowly edged out Bobby Witt with another 14 home runs to earn the title.
Typically a mid-tier power guy whose career-best 32-homer mark in 2021, the year MLB basically used a golf ball, Hernández went on to produce just as well in the second half. His strikeout rate remained well within the range of his career norms, and his batting average actually jumped 20 points.
In 2023, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the Derby and also showed no signs of a curse. In the first half, he posted a .274 average with 13 home runs and a 15.6 percent strikeout rate.
Post-Derby saw a slight dip in average, but he also hit the same number of homers in fewer games and dropped his strikeout rate to just 13.4 percent. A high-quality hitter, Guerrero never changed.
Juan Soto’s 2022 Derby win is often cited as evidence of the curse, but context matters. In the first half with Washington, Soto hit .250 with 20 home runs, 43 RBIs, and a 13.7 percent strikeout rate. After winning the Derby, he was traded to San Diego, and his second-half stats dipped to a .231 average with just seven home runs and a 15.5 percent strikeout rate. Not a steep decline in plate discipline, but the power was sapped by the cavernous dimensions of Petco Park. But was it the Derby that led to the reduced numbers, or was this decline more about adjusting to a new team and environment?
Pete Alonso, the 2021 Derby winner, further debunks the myth as he carried his momentum into the second half with more homers in fewer games, better plate discipline numbers overall and a batting average increase by almost 30 points. Fantasy managers who bet on Alonso’s power were rewarded.
The data is clear. Three of the past four Derby winners either maintained or improved their performance post-Derby, with Soto’s dip explained by external factors. For Raleigh, his power profile, plate discipline and switch-hitting ability make him a safe bet to avoid any mythical curse. Fantasy managers should confidently roster him, expecting robust home run and RBI contributions in the second half of 2025. The Home Run Derby is a showcase of power, not a swing wrecker.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball news and advice.