The Lakers and Mavericks match up on Tuesday night in Dallas, and it’s a brutal situational spot for both teams. 

The Lakers are playing for the first time since winning the in-season tournament, so it’s a classic letdown spot returning to regular, old, dry, regular-season play. 

Generally, from a betting perspective, this would be an automatic fade of the Lakers. 

However, the Mavericks are playing on a back-to-back after battling the Grizzlies last night, so fatigue is a factor. 

Moreover, the injury report for both teams is brutal. 

The Mavs will be without Kyrie Irving, Maxi Kleber and Josh Green. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Luka Doncic are also listed as day-to-day. 

Meanwhile, the Lakers will be without Jalen Hood-Schifino and Gabe Vincent, while LeBron James and Anthony Davis are similarly listed as “day-to-day.” 

(via BetMGM)

(7:30 p.m. ET, TNT)

So, with both teams tired and banged up, I’m all over the Under 231.5 (-110) on Tuesday night. 

I think it’s a pretty good spot for both offenses to struggle, as there’ll be few available and/or rested enough players to put the ball in the basket consistently. 

For example, the Lakers have a -3.8 per-game point differential with two or three days of rest, and Tuesday presents a uniquely restless situation. 

The Mavericks are surprisingly solid with no rest, but they’re also about four points worse offensively per 100 possessions without Irving – he’s the team’s second-leading scorer (23 PPG). 

The Mavs are a whopping 10 points worse offensively per 100 possessions without Hardaway – he’s the team’s third-leading scorer (16.9 PPG). 

If both are out, things will get ugly. 

Also, this matchup is strength-on-strength, schematically. 

Dallas ranks third in the NBA in points per 100 possessions (119.7), but L.A. is sixth in points per 100 possessions allowed (111.1). The Lakers are a good defensive team that can hang with the Mavericks. 

Meanwhile, the Mavs are 21st in the NBA in points per 100 possessions allowed (116.6), but their defense should hang with a struggling Lakers offense that ranks 20th in points per 100 possessions (113.8). 

The Lakers do one thing well on offense: getting to the line. They rank fourth in the NBA in free-throw rate. 

Unfortunately, the Mavericks do one thing well on defense: preventing opponents from getting to the charity stripe.

They rank third in the NBA in free-throw rate allowed. 

So, this feels like a matchup where both teams scuffle around and struggle to do anything well.

That’s how past matchups have played out, with four straight Lakers-Mavericks games staying Under the closing total. 

Throw in the injuries and exhaustion, and I could see both teams struggling to reach the century mark. 

However, I’ll happily take the Under 231.5 (-110). 

Under 231.5 (-110) | Play to 230 (-110)