Celtics made their point and then some, making half of their 40 3-pointers in a convincing Game 3 win on Saturday.
Can we expect more regression in Game 4 — as opposed to what we saw in Games 1 and 2 when they missed a combined 75-of-100 shots from behind the arc?
Boston’s shooting percentage is one of the major storylines so far in this series, along with Jayson Tatum.
The often criticized star has mostly underdelivered in this series, although he somewhat broke out of his slump in Game 3 with 22 points on 5-for-9 shooting from downtown.
The three-time All-NBA first-teamer has cashed the Under for his points prop in all three games. His series high is 23 points and low is 13 points.
I am backing Under 27.5 points for Game 4. In my eyes, Boston’s most effective game plan is a balanced scoring attack, rather than having Tatum chuck 25 or more shots.
Given how Games 1 and 2 unfolded with the blown leads, Boston took a much more measured offensive approach in Game 3. The Celtics adjusted their style to protect their sizable lead, which led to fewer possessions and resulted in their first win.
That has a domino effect on Tatum in the simplest form. Fewer possessions means fewer chances that Tatum will hoist a shot. Plus, he started making his 3-pointers and thus did not attack the rim. Hence, he only attempted one free throw.
I think Tatum continues to shoot 3-pointers, and even if he makes them at a strong clip, he will not generate many points elsewhere.
Also, there is a strong chance the Knicks defense rotates harder to get the ball out of his hands, since Boston’s offense prioritizes ball movement to the open man.
I am 41-33-1 ATS in this Post sports section, and my next play is Tatum under 27.5 points.
PICK: Jayson Tatum under 27.5 points (-115, BetMGM)
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.