Despite entering Saturday’s Game 1 as a decent road underdog, the Knicks drew first blood in their first-round series with the Cavaliers with a gutsy 101-97 win that nearly flipped the other way in the closing minutes.
NBA oddsmakers are skeptical of a repeat performance, pricing Cleveland as an even bigger home favorite ahead of a crucial Game 2 contest that could shape the entire trajectory of this series.
Here’s how we’re betting Tuesday’s contest, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
(via BetMGM)
(7:30 p.m. ET on TNT)
I was high on the Cavaliers coming into this series, as I felt their roster construction from top to bottom was ideally suited to succeed in this postseason environment.
And I’m not ready to move off those priors after just a one-game sample.
Yes, the Knicks deserve credit for landing the opening punch in what looks like a more compelling series than at first glance.
Jalen Brunson (27 points) had his fingerprints all over Saturday’s affair, with 21 of those points coming in a rousing second-half effort to shut down an inspired Cavaliers rally.
Still, it wasn’t exactly a convincing performance from New York, which shot 42% from the floor and 27.6% from deep and squandered a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter before pulling ahead for good in the final minutes.
The key was a punishing effort on the offensive glass: the Knicks finished with 17 offensive rebounds, including the one that ultimately sealed it in the final seconds.
It was just the fifth time in the last 11 games that New York finished with double-digit offensive rebounds, and it tied the fourth-most allowed by Cleveland all season.
I just don’t see that happening again in Game 2, especially with the size-down low for the Cavaliers.
And if it doesn’t, do the Knicks have enough firepower offensively with Julius Randle (19 points, 7-of-20 shooting) still clearly hampered by the ankle injury that sidelined him for the final two weeks of the regular season?
Cleveland has its own questions to answer offensively, as Donovan Mitchell (38 points) was one of just three players in double figures.
Still, it feels more correctable for the Cavaliers, as starter Evan Mobley (4-of-13) and sixth man Caris LeVert (1-of-7) likely won’t shoot that poorly again without injuries to blame for their shooting woes.
They also have a greater sample to draw from.
Cleveland posted the NBA’s second-best net rating (+5.6) across the entire regular season, and while its top-ranked defense (109.9 points per 100 possessions) drew much of the attention, it still finished in the top 10 in offensive rating (115.5) and true shooting percentage (59%).
With Mitchell at the helm, the Cavaliers’ offense should be just fine in Game 2, and their defense is well-suited to limit Brunson’s flurries better than it did in Game 1.
If Randle isn’t healthy enough to force the issue inside, it’ll be tough for New York to replicate its grind-it-out strategy to the same success on Tuesday.
Also, consider this: since 2018, Game 2 favorites of at least six points coming off a series-opening loss are a perfect 7-0 against the spread, winning all six games by an average of 18.3 points.
None of those games were decided by fewer than eight points, and I’d be surprised if this one was, either.