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
Take it back to a year ago. Back to the skepticism surrounding Jalen Brunson. Back to the concern over an inflated contract on Leon Rose’s friends and family plan. Back to Brunson’s No. 67 ranking on ESPN’s top 100. Back to Mark Cuban’s public indifference about losing the point guard.
Now look at the situation: Brunson is underpaid. He’s ranked No. 32 by ESPN. Cuban went from indifference to throwing a fit over Brunson’s father, tanking a season and trading for locker-room toxin Kyrie Irving.
This narrative turnaround occurred because of the greatest season by a Knicks point guard since at least Stephon Marbury. Then the greatest playoffs from a Knicks point guard since Clyde Frazier.
And yet, we’re still generating the same questions about Brunson: Can he be better? Is he the franchise player or the supplemental star?
Tom Thibodeau sounded like Ricky Bobby’s father from “Talladega Nights” on career day when asked Saturday how his point guard could improve.
“It’s either getting better or getting worse,” the coach said.
Public confidence in Brunson is not cliched embellishment from the Knicks. When they signed the Villanova product, a prominent member of the front office was privately telling people they nabbed a top-10 point guard. Now they truly believe Brunson can level up.
The FIBA World Cup wasn’t good for their argument, however. Brunson started as Team USA’s top point guard but was outplayed by the backup, Tyrese Haliburton, and couldn’t stop an early elimination.
The preseason became a waste of time. Brunson only logged 45 total minutes and shot 36 percent, playing in short spurts until last week’s disappointing finale. So the summer buildup wasn’t great toward Wednesday’s opener against the Celtics, when Brunson will enter a season with, by far, the highest expectations of his career.
And if stagnancy isn’t an option, as Thibodeau said, the 27-year-old has to somehow lift the Knicks past the second round.
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“Jalen Brunson is a guy who could potentially get guys there. Because he’s about winning. He’s the guy who sets your culture,” Jamal Crawford, the former Knick and current TNT analyst, said. “Because you know with him it’s no agenda. I know Julius Randle made the All-Star Game last year, but I thought Jalen Brunson should’ve been an All-Star. Maybe over Julius Randle, if I’m being honest. I just thought he was the connector. And then in the playoffs we saw how great he was, how brilliant he was.”
Indeed, Brunson was spectacular against the Cavs and Heat. He almost single-handedly carried the Knicks into the conference finals, receiving little help from Randle while the team fell in six games to the eventual Eastern Conference champs.
Improvement from excellence won’t be easy. That’s the theme of the Knicks season. They overachieved last season, maintained the same roster, and must somehow be better.
“The big thing for us is continuity,” Thibodeau said, “but also understanding we have to start all over again.”
Brunson skipped point A last season and now has to carry a franchise from B to C.
It sounds difficult after such an unexpectedly positive season, but the Knicks believe Brunson is capable.
Can he do it?
1. Which Julius Randle will show up?
The two versions of Randle are so different it’s hard to believe they’re the same basketball player. There’s the All-NBA Randle, circa regular seasons of 2020-21 and 2022-23, who is healthy, hitting his outside shot and generally cheerful. Then there’s the angry Randle, circa regular season of 2021-22 and the two playoff appearances, when he’s woefully inefficient and perpetually on the brink of an emotional outburst or technical foul. We know which one the Knicks prefer.
2. Will timid Leon Rose finally use his assets for a big trade?
Blockbusters don’t usually happen during the season, so it’s unlikely. If the Sixers implode, for instance, they’ll probably wait until the summer to entertain thoughts of dealing Joel Embiid. But the Knicks have all these stockpiled draft picks and are on the clock with Evan Fournier, who needs to be traded by the deadline or the Knicks waste his expiring contract. It may be small, but something will happen.
3. Can the Knicks guard the perimeter?
Tom Thibodeau tends to throw out stats as a deflection but his defense’s clear vulnerability is defending 3-pointers. It’s by design. Thibodeau wants to pack the paint and uses Mitchell Robinson as a deterrent, but the formation allowed opponents to hit 13 treys per game against the Knicks last season — fourth-worst in the NBA. Rotations have to be quick and smart, requiring full buy-in from the players. We don’t see that all the time from Randle and RJ Barrett, in particular. And if the opponent gets hot, the Knicks get burned.
4. Can the Knicks get away with not having a traditional backup power forward?
They didn’t replace Obi Toppin and plan to utilize either Josh Hart or Jericho Sims as Julius Randle’s backup. Both those options present potential problems. Hart, while a strong and intense defender/rebounder, is only 6-foot-4. Try using him against a frontcourt of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez. Sims, meanwhile, is so limited offensively that offensive floor spacing is impossible when he’s paired with a center, whether it’s Mitchell Robinson or Isaiah Hartenstein.
5. Can the Knicks move the ball?
It’s easy to blame the lack of ball movement on Thibodeau’s isolation-heavy system, which hasn’t produced a team in the top 27 in assists since he joined the Knicks. But players also have tunnel vision and the predictability of the offense became a major problem in the second round against the Heat. Neither Brunson nor Randle nor Barrett are strong passers. They all carry a score-first mentality.
Newcomer to watch
There’s only one worth monitoring: Donte DiVincenzo, a backup guard, is the lone addition to the rotation from last season. He should get plenty of opportunities after signing a four-year, $50 million contract, but there’s a roster crunch to sort out. DiVincenzo, Jalen Brunson, Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley all expect big minutes and there’s only 96 minutes available to the backcourt. Tom Thibodeau will have to get creative. DiVincenzo brings a championship pedigree (one NBA title, two NCAA championships) with strong defensive instincts and an above-average 3-pointer. But finishing at the rim remains his biggest issue. He’s listed as 6-foot-4 and that seems very generous.
Most important decision
Whether to give Thibodeau a contract extension. The coach has two years remaining on his deal and is underpaid compared to his counterparts, most notably Detroit’s Monty Williams and Philadelphia’s Nick Nurse. If the Knicks wait until the summer, they’re hitting an artificial deadline since coaches don’t typically go into a season with an expiring contract. Thibodeau is already entering rare territory for this franchise. No Knicks coach has survived four full seasons since Jeff Van Gundy. This will be Thibodeau’s fourth season.
Good days to come
The Knicks don’t have a player older than 28 in their rotation. They can also boast of continuity, which is an underrated advantage in this era of player movement. The Nuggets are the best example of what years together can cultivate in terms of cohesion. They have 11 first-round picks in the next seven years, which Leon Rose has hoarded to compel a superstar trade. You could argue the Knicks aren’t carrying one bad contract on their books.
Bad days ahead
There was a lot of overachieving last season. Brunson, Quickley and Mitchell Robinson had career years. Julius Randle and Josh Hart were well above their average. Let’s say they all regress to their mean, or even worse, below it. Then the Knicks are stuck with big money committed to a very middling roster, leaving Rose with depreciated assets to restructure. The East is deep and there’s not much of a difference between the third seed and the play-in.
Story that won’t go away
Evan Fournier thought he’d be gone by now. Traded to a team that wanted his shooting. But the Frenchman is still on the roster and has made clear he’d be loudly uncomfortable sitting on the bench again. It’s an understandable position. He’s 30 years old entering a contract year and the Knicks are only keeping him around because he might help them match salaries in a deal. Barring a rash of injuries, there’s no path to playing time on the Knicks. Fournier will be collecting DNPs once the regular season begins. One way or another, this should end by the February trade deadline. If the Knicks don’t find a worthwhile deal, Fournier becomes a buyout candidate.
Don’t be surprised if…
Quentin Grimes makes the biggest jump this season. He’ll benefit from a full training camp after missing last season’s because of a foot injury. Grimes has another gear offensively and is itching to showcase it after mostly serving as a catch-and-shoot option with the starters. For Grimes, who is still just 23 years old and is eligible for a contract extension after the season, it’s mostly about opportunity and confidence. He didn’t see the ball much in a lineup with RJ Barrett, Randle and Brunson. But that will change if Grimes forces the issue like Quickley did last season.
Tom Thibodeau’s teams tend to get better as the season progresses but the Knicks have the benefit of continuity and familiarity that will help drive early success. While the rest of the NBA is working through adjustments, the Knicks will hit their Wilson ball rolling (or at least right after their schedule eases up in early November). That’ll be good enough for the fourth seed and a Game 1 at Madison Square Garden.