An inside look at how the 151st Kentucky Derby will shape up:
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Current form: The 2-year-old Breeders Cup Juvenile champ got his 3-year-old campaign started by winning a Grade 3, but stopped badly in the Santa Anita Derby won by Journalism.
Worth a wager: Last year, the speedy Dornoch drew the rail. That didn’t go very well. Citizen will have to be a raging bull to get position. Too much to overcome. Eleventh.
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Saffie Joseph
Current form: Showed the way in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby before settling for third behind Sovereignty in both.
Worth a wager: Not convinced he wants more distance. Wins were earned while sprinting. No one riding better than Flavien Prat but more inside trouble makes us put him 17th.
Jockey: Luan Machado
Trainer: Brad Cox
Current form: Brings a two-race winning streak to Churchill Downs. Both races run over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. Closed from last of 12 to take the Jeff Ruby Steaks.
Worth a wager: Beat Flying Mohawk in the Ruby but this is a tough spot to make your dirt debut. Sired by Not This Time. Enough said. A respectable 12th.
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Current form: Finished off the board in both the Southwest stake and the Risen Star but woke up in a big way to win the Virginia Derby by 7+ lengths.
Worth a wager: Has made the most starts (nine) but has enjoyed the most rest (seven weeks). D. Wayne Lukas’ colt didn’t beat much in Virginia. Stalks, flattens to be 13th.
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
Current form: It took the Japan-bred four starts to break his maiden. Two starts later he won the UAE Derby at Meydan by a nose.
Worth a wager: The Dubai-to-Derby plan has a history of epic failure. We loved Forever Young in the 2024 Derby and he ran a thisclose third. Maybe next year. 15th.
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Current form: Brings a four-race winning streak from Japan including a pair of 9-furlong stakes. Outkicked Admire Daytona when they met in Tokyo.
Worth a wager: Kentucky-bred returns home to make his U.S. debut in our country’s biggest race. A good story, but a tough assignment. Late-kicker reports home a midpack 10th.
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Current form: Has won four straight and gets better with every start. Overcame some early trouble to win the Santa Anita Derby after defeating Rodrigez in the five-horse San Felipe.
Worth a wager: Top form. Top fig (102). Top pick? The horse to beat will be tough to hold off if he gets clear. We will try. Putting the favorite third.
Jockey: Brian Hernandez
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Current form: Wide, neighborhood fourth behind Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth. Wide trip didn’t prevent him from winning the Blue Grass next out.
Worth a wager: Took advantage of a torrid pace at Keeneland. There are better closers. Brian Hernandez won last year’s Derby aboard Mystic Dan. Ninth.
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Current form: Took a perfect 2-for-2 record to the Wood Memorial and did well to be second behind Rodriguez to earn a spot in the Derby gate.
Worth a wager: John Velazquez was aboard for both W’s. Does best running on the lead and sure Johnny V will have him forwardly placed. Question. Would it surprise you to see Mike Repole in the winner’s circle? Runs early, fades to be sixth.
Jockey: Joe Ramos
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Current form: Two-time turf winner tried the synthetics at Turfway and ran second behind Final Gambit in the Jeff Ruby.
Worth a wager: No dirt experience. This race, in a field of 20, may not be the best place for a stretch runner to find a lane. Blinkers off. Not last, but 19th.
Jockey: Manny Franco
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Current form: Went off the 4-5 favorite in the Risen Star and walked home a disappointing 10th of 12. Was put on the lead in the Blue Grass and got caught in the final jump by Burnham Square.
Worth a wager: He’s fast but there are horses that are faster and he will be hard-pressed to stay with them. Manny Franco takes him as far as he goes. We think he’s gonna be 16th.
Jockey: Irad Ortiz
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Current form: Finished fourth behind Coal Battle in the Rebel, then second behind Sandman in the Arkansas Derby.
Worth a wager: Hasn’t beaten anybody. No really, he’s an 0 for 7 maiden. Tough spot to earn diploma but American Pharoah-sired colt is getting better and Irad Ortiz an intriguing rider change. May be better equipped for the summer classics. For now, a respectable fifth.
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Current form: Was a half-dozen lengths back of Coal Battle in the Rebel. Rebounded to win the Louisiana Derby at this longer distance.
Worth a wager: The deep-closing Tiztastic was fantastic in victory and may build on it. Versatile. He’s 2 for 2 on turf. Believe he makes it interesting. Gets up for fourth.
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Current form: Runner-up to runaway winner American Promise in the Virginia Derby. Followed that with a non-threatening fifth in the Blue Grass.
Worth a wager: Remember Rich Strike riding the rail and upsetting the 2022 edition at odds of 80-1. This would make no sense either. Rendering judgment. Last of 20.
Jockey: Juan Vargas
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Current form: Stretched his winning streak to four in the Rebel then had it snapped by Sandman in the Arkansas Derby.
Worth a wager: Only five time winner in the field. The loss in Arkansas was his first on dirt. No real excuses. May have peaked in the Rebel. Placing him eighth.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Mark Casse
Current form: Slow starter fell nearly 13 lengths back before rallying to be a close third to Coal Battle in the Rebel. Lost touch again in the Arkansas Derby but powered down the lane to win it.
Worth a wager: If the Tapit gray stays clean down the backside and remains in the same area code as the leaders, the Sandman can put this field to sleep. Winner.
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Bill Mott
Current form: The Fountain of Youth winner was second, a length short to Tappan Street in the Florida Derby next out.
Worth a wager: Tappan Street (injury) isn’t in the Derby and the oddsmakers at Churchill Downs made him Sovereignty the second betting choice behind Journalism. Gets Junior Alvarado back but I’m gonna shop elsewhere at this price. Seventh.
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Trainer: Ethan West
Current form: Has one win from four starts but ran second at 43-1 in the Risen Star then second again to Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby.
Worth a wager: One of many that can make a late run and get a piece at a price. Deep exotics? No, 14th.
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Current form: The Tampa Bay Derby winner made his way to Keeneland and finished four lengths behind Burnham Square and East Avenue in the Blue Grass.
Worth a wager: Flashes speed from the furthest post. Races wide into the clubhouse turn and gives way. 18th.
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Current Form: Went from a maiden breaker to the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and ran his eyeballs out. Took a late lead before Journalism ran him down.
Worth a wager: Short résumé. Big chance. The #21 loads the gate after Rodriguez scratched. No one riding better than Flavien Prat, and he has a real shot under this lightly raced stalker. Runs big again … for second.