Conquering Wimbledon is just as much an art as it is a science.
The grass-court season is incredibly short — there are essentially just two warmup tournaments for Wimbledon — and very few players spend much time trying to adapt to the surface.
That’s made this tournament — and surface — polarizing among modern players, and it’s why we see a lot of the game’s best competitors struggle under the bright lights at the All England Club.
Teen sensation Joao Fonseca seems to be bucking that trend.
Fonseca has hardly put a foot wrong in his maiden voyage at Wimbledon, beating England’s Jacob Fearnley in straight sets in Round 1 and then dispatching Jenson Brooksby, 6-4, 5-7, 6-2, 6-4, in the Round of 64.
Fearnley and Brooksby are far from world-beaters, but they’ve both been around the block at Wimbledon. It was fair to wonder if Fonseca would stumble against them.
Nope.
Fonseca now looks to qualify for the Round of 16 by defeating Nicolas Jarry on Friday.
Jarry, a three-time winner on the ATP Tour playing in his sixth Wimbledon, is a +175 underdog against the 18-year-old from Rio de Janeiro.
After starting the season with a bang at the Australian Open, Fonseca put the tennis world on notice by winning his maiden title at ATP Buenos Aires.
Fonseca’s had some blips since then, but for the most part his 2025 has been a resounding success.
He’s got plenty of impressive wins, including against Andrey Rublev, Ugo Humbert, Alexander Bublik and Francisco Cerundolo.
Those are all very different types of players, showing that Fonseca is already a versatile competitor who won’t be overwhelmed when the conditions suit his opponent.
That could be the case against Jarry, a 6-foot-8 Chilean with a massive serve.
This will be the first time that Fonseca will face a big server on the slick surface at Wimbledon, but there’s no reason to doubt that he’ll be able to adjust and get this match on his terms.
He already made things look easy against grass-court specialist Fearnley in Round 1.
Jarry was able to get off the court quickly in a whitewash over Learner Tien in the Round of 64, but he played a marathon on Monday against Holger Rune, and it wouldn’t be a shock for their to be some fatigue in his game.
Fonseca has earned our trust as the favorite.
The Play: Fonseca (-225, bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.