No more than two weeks ago, the Winnipeg Jets were being written off as choke-artists.

After losing to the Calgary Flames, 3-1, it looked like Winnipeg’s playoff spot was in serious jeopardy.

It was quite the fall for the Jets after they were one of the best teams in the Western Conference through their first 50 games or so.

But wouldn’t you know it?

Not only did Winnipeg get into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but they’re now a fancied underdog in their Round 1 series against the Vegas Golden Knights.

Is the change in perception warranted?

Or is this just a case of folks feeling the need to pick at least one upset in their brackets and landing on the Jets?

Let’s dive into this matchup.

(10 p.m. ET. TBS)

The Golden Knights bounced back from missing the playoffs in 2021-22 with a division title in ’22-23.

The Knights came out of the blocks hot and were able to keep up their pace despite a laundry list of injury issues, especially in goal.

Vegas was expected to go into this season with a tandem of Robin Lehner and Logan Thompson, but things were thrown into flux during the offseason when it was announced that Lehner would miss the whole campaign.

Adin Hill was brought in from San Jose to stabilize the position while Laurent Brossoit was rehabbing his injury in the minor leagues.

We’re not done yet.

Hill and Thompson both fought injury issues throughout the season, while Brossoit finally was able to join the team in the last quarter of the season.

With very little consistency, the team would then go out and acquire Jonathan Quick from the Columbus Blue Jackets just a day after he was traded there from the Kings.

Got all that? 

That circus in goal has thrown a lot of cold water on the Knights as a lot of people are having a hard time getting around to a Brossoit-Quick tandem being good enough for a long playoff run.

It’ll be especially tricky in Round 1 against Connor Hellebuyck and the Winnipeg Jets.

While there’s more questions than answers in goal for the Golden Knights, the Jets know that their most viable path to success in this series is Hellebuyck standing on his head.

Winnipeg has plenty of scoring talent and is decent defensively (the Jets ranked 14th in expected goals allowed and 11th in high-danger chances against at 5-on-5 this season), but Hellebuyck is their talisman.

The Michigan native posted a .920 save percentage and a +30.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 64 appearances in 2022-23. 

Vegas is the better team and has the more impressive statistical portfolio in this matchup, but there are some red flags for the Golden Knights.

They put together an impressive 17-4-4 stretch over their last 25 games, but a lot of that success was due to terrific goaltending and a hot finishing run.

The Knights ranked 24th in expected goals rate and 21st in high-danger scoring chance percentage during that hot streak. 

While the Knights flew through the finish line, the Jets had to fight tooth and nail to get into the party.

But there’s more to this matchup than just a hot team taking on one that struggled to get invited to the dance.

The Jets figure to have a significant edge in goal and are not likely to be dominated at even strength based off of what we’ve seen from Vegas of late.

Perhaps Mark Stone’s insertion into the lineup changes that tune, but that’s hard to count on in his first game back.

The Jets are the value side in this matchup.

Jets ML +135 (Caesars) | Jets to win the series +135 (Caesars)