The biggest offseason story in the NFL has surrounded the Jets, who acquired quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the Packers.

Rodgers makes his Jets debut at MetLife Stadium on Monday night in a crucial AFC East battle with reigning division champion Buffalo.

The Bills have flown under the radar this past offseason and even in the preseason after their disappointing showing in their home divisional playoff loss to the Bengals.

Buffalo split a pair of matchups with the Jets last season as the Bills closed both games in the role of double-digit favorites. Bills quarterback Josh Allen didn’t pass for more than 205 yards in either of the two contests against the Jets, but obviously this number has come down with Rodgers manning the Jets’ offense.

The Bills sustained eight against-the-spread losses last season as a favorite of six points or more but posted a 3-1 ATS mark when laying four points of fewer.

It’s hard to evaluate the Jets from last season simply due to their issues and instability at the quarterback position. The Jets closed with six straight losses. They also dropped the season-opening game in each of the past four seasons.

Rodgers posted a solid 4-2 ATS record in the underdog role in 2022, although the Packers were blown out in the season opener at Minnesota.

The Bills took care of business in prime-time games by compiling a perfect 5-0 straight-up mark, which included four victories by double digits.

The Jets will improve this season, but it’s hard to overlook this Bills squad as this short of a favorite to open the 2023 campaign.

THE PICK: Bills -1.5 (-110, BetMGM)