Wrapping up an exciting Week 1 slate in the NFL is a fascinating “Monday Night Football” game between the Jets and 49ers.
Who will come out on top in a battle between two potential Super Bowl contenders? Let’s dive into the matchup.
Aaron Rodgers is making his much-awaited return to the field for the Jets after tearing his Achilles just four snaps into Week 1 last year. He’s back on “Monday Night Football,” where he’s thrived throughout his career, winning his last 10 appearances while tossing 23 touchdowns to just three interceptions in those games.
Rodgers will benefit from the most improved offensive line in the NFL, featuring veteran offensive tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. That line will also open holes for the running game.
Breece Hall faces a 49ers defense that allowed the third-most yards to running backs at the second level last year, per FTN. Hall ranked fourth among qualified backs in yards after contact per attempt despite facing constant stacked boxes in 2023.
Do-it-all linebacker Dre Greenlaw will be out for a while for the 49ers after tearing his Achilles, further weakening a San Francisco front seven that lost Arik Armstead and Chase Young in free agency.
If the 49ers need to commit extra resources to stop the run, look for Rodgers to take advantage. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson is poised for a breakout season with the benefit of reliable quarterback play for the first time in his career.
Brock Purdy is coming off a breakthrough season, leading the league in virtually every advanced efficiency metric, including an adjusted EPA that far outpaced the rest of the NFL.
However, it’s fair to wonder if he benefited from an easy schedule. In four games against top-10 pass defenses last year, Purdy finished with just a 59.1 percent completion rate and five touchdowns to eight interceptions.
Under Robert Saleh, the Jets have an elite pass defense. They had the third-best defense in EPA/play last year and held several elite quarterbacks to season-worst passing performances.
C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes were all held well below their YPA averages for the season and combined to throw more interceptions than touchdowns.
Tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk are back in the fold, but even with Williams on the field last year, the 49ers ranked 20th in pass-block win rate. After missing training camp, it could take the 36-year-old tackle a bit to get up to speed.
The 49ers are also at a massive disadvantage with their interior offensive line facing Quinnen Williams, one of the league’s most fearsome interior defensive linemen.
The storylines are endless in this game. Kyle Shanahan hosts his former defensive coordinator, Saleh. Meanwhile, Rodgers travels to San Francisco, where he grew up, to face a 49ers team he’s 0-4 against in the playoffs.
I’m backing the Jets to make a statement and keep things close against the 49ers, possibly pulling off the outright upset.
Action Network’s Evan Abrams also provides some excellent trends. Underdogs in Week 1 “MNF” games have been 29-12-1 ATS (71 percent) since 1998, while the Super Bowl loser has been 5-19 ATS (20 percent) since 2000.
Take the Jets in their season opener as four-point underdogs (-110, BetMGM).