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NY Post
New York Post
16 Apr 2023


NextImg:Jarred Kelenic teases fantasy baseball owners again with eight-game tear

Jarred Kelenic’s career, to this point, feels a bit like “The Boy Who Cried Wolf.”

Fantasy managers were told Kelenic was the next big thing in 2021. It didn’t happen, as he hit .181 with a 28.1 percent strikeout rate in 93 big-league games after hitting .320 in Triple-A.

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Fantasy managers were told Kelenic was going adjust and be a monster in the bigs in 2022. He hit .141 with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate in 54 big-league games, disappointing again.

This spring, Kelenic looked like a new player (.353, four homers, 10 RBIs, three stolen bases, 10 runs, 1.095 OPS), the one fantasy managers have been expecting and hoping for.

It was an impressive showing, but spring numbers mean bupkis, and fantasy managers didn’t take the bait of a potential breakout, as his average draft position was 243.43, according to Fantasy Alarm.

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They’d been lied to enough.

Kelenic went 2-for-13 (.154) with no homers or RBIs, one walk, six strikeouts and a .445 OPS in his first six games this season. Same old story.

The next eight games, however, made things interesting.

Jarred Kelenic homered in four straight games entering Saturday.
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Kelenic entered Saturday on an eight-game hitting streak and was 13-for-28 (.464) with four homers, seven RBIs, seven runs, a stolen base and 1.552 OPS in that span.

He had homers in four straight games before Saturday, including a monstrous 482-foot bomb Wednesday, and at least one RBI in six straight games.

He entered Saturday hitting .366 with four homers, seven RBIs, two stolen bases, seven runs and a 1.203 OPS.

Despite the hot streak, the Mets’ 2018 first-round pick was just the 11th-most added player in ESPN leagues this week and remains almost 70 percent available. (He is rostered in 73 percent of Yahoo leagues.)

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It is a very small sample size, but there are reasons to be excited … and skeptical.

Jarred Kelenic has teased fantasy baseball managers before, but results never followed.

Jarred Kelenic has teased fantasy baseball managers before, but results never followed.
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Kelenic’s hard-hit percentage ranks in the top 1 percent of the majors and his exit velocity ranks in the top 5 percent.

On top of that, his expected batting average (.336) ranks in the top 3 percent of the league, and his expected slugging percentage (.819) ranks in the top 1 percent.

Kelenic is crushing fastballs, hitting .458 with three homers and just a 14 percent whiff rate.

There are also red flags, like his struggles against breaking balls and offspeed pitches.

He is 2-for-13 (.154) with a 38.9 percent whiff rate, .161 xBA and .385 slugging percentage against breaking balls, and has a 36.4 percent whiff rate versus offspeed stuff.

Jarred Kelenic had a slow start to the 2023 season, but that changed with an eight-game hitting streak entering Saturday.

Jarred Kelenic had a slow start to the 2023 season, but that changed with an eight-game hitting streak entering Saturday.
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It isn’t a new issue either, as he hit .057 against breaking balls and .154 against offspeed pitches in 2022, and .161 and .125 respectively in 2021.

Another problem: Kelenic is terrible against southpaws.

(To be fair, he is hitting just .194 against righties for his career, despite hitting .361 against them this year.)

He is a .163 hitter with a 30 percent strikeout rate against lefties in his career and has barely played this season when a southpaw is on the mound (he got his first two hits, including a homer, on Friday night which raised his average vs. lefties to a deceiving .400).

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Kelenic’s 26.7 percent strikeout rate is another red flag, and his .440 BABIP points to some good luck assisting his early success.

On one hand, Kelenic is finally showing fantasy managers what he is capable of. On the other hand, hitting .366 over 12 games in April does not win fantasy titles. He is worthy of a roster spot (or selling high if someone in your league is showing interest), but let’s see him continue before we go crowning him the next big thing … again.

Nick Lodolo SP, Reds 

Opponents are hitting .267 against him and he is issuing 3.18 walks per nine, but he is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA (1.80 xERA, 2.04 FIP), 14.29 strikeouts per nine and a 14.9 percent swinging strike rate.

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Brandon Lowe 2B, Rays

At least one hit in six of his past seven games, hitting .391 with five homers, 12 RBIs, 11 runs and a 1.587 OPS in that span.

The Rays' Brandon Lowe hit a gran slam against Oakland on April 9.

The Rays’ Brandon Lowe hit a grand slam against Oakland on April 9.
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Kevin Gausman SP, Blue Jays

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Walked just 3.8 percent of batters faced while striking out 31.6 percent. Owns a 1.35 ERA, 13.6 swinging strike rate and .224 opponents average.

Nico Hoerner 2B/SS, Cubs

Entered Friday hitting .390 with 11 runs and a .882 OPS over his previous nine games. He also stole five bases in that span.

C.J. Cron 1B, Rockies

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Hit .636 with three homers and a 2.329 OPS in his first three games, but was 3-for-33 (.091) with 12 strikeouts and .273 OPS over his next eight.

Chris Sale SP, Red Sox

Entered the weekend with the worst ERA (11.25) in the majors, and opponents are hitting .327 against him. Despite striking out almost 30 percent of the batters he has faced, he has walked 10.9 percent.

Chris Sale entered the weekend with the worst ERA in the majors.

Chris Sale entered the weekend with the worst ERA in the majors.
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J.T. Realmuto C, Phillies

Went 4-for-29 (.138) with 15 strikeouts, no walks and .414 OPS over his previous seven games before Friday.

Logan Webb SP, Giants

Allowed four earned runs in each of his first three starts while going 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA, .837 OPS and .284 opponents average.

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