The biggest story (and most pleasant surprise) at the 2023 Women’s World Cup so far has been the lack of blowouts.

There was a genuine concern that the expanded tournament field would lead to a lot of non-competitive matches early on, but it’s been quite the opposite so far.

Haiti was terrific in a 1-0 loss to England; Jamaica earned a 0-0 draw vs. France; South Africa was ahead of Sweden in the second half but lost on a last-minute goal, and Vietnam easily covered the six-goal spread in a 3-0 loss to the USWNT.

(1 a.m ET., FS1)

The betting market has adjusted to the lack of blowouts.

So now the question becomes whether or not to go against the adjustments and try to catch bookmakers overcorrecting to the first slate of matches.

Wednesday’s match between Japan and Costa Rica (1 a.m. ET) is a perfect opportunity to do just that.

While other tournament favorites found things tough in their openers, Japan ran roughshod over Zambia in an emphatic 5-0 victory.

The underlying metrics supported the blowout, too, as Nakashido Japan tallied 6.5 expected goals against the Copper Queens.

Japan should be able to pull a similar result against Costa Rica, which is coming off a 3-0 loss to Spain in which they surrendered 4.7 expected goals.

THE PLAY: Japan -3.5 goals (+140, BetMGM).