A classic 12 vs. 5 seed with upset potential is on tap in the opening round of the 2024 NCAA Men’s March Madness Basketball Tournament on Friday night, as James Madison takes on Wisconsin at Barclays Center.
While I don’t have a preference on a side in this one, the total jumped out to me as a spot to attack on the betting board.
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | +5.5 (-110) | o145 (-110) | +195 |
| Wisconsin | -5.5 (-110) | u145 (-110) | -240 |
Are the Dukes for real?
JMU is in the midst of an incredible season. The Sun Belt Conference champion that owns the nation’s longest active win streak at 13 games ranks top-60 in KenPom’s adjusted offense rating and top-79 in adjusted defensive rating.
The Dukes are a very balanced team that grades out well in just about everything, which includes the country’s second-best 3-point defensive percentage.
Terrence Edwards paves the way for JMU, averaging just a tick over 17 points per game. He’s accompanied by four other seniors who play big-time minutes for the Dukes.
With a wealth of experience, the Dukes should not be rattled against Wisconsin or any other potential opponent in the tournament.
Of course, the success is hard to evaluate against their conference competition. JMU has played just three teams ranked in KenPom’s top 100, knocking off Michigan State in the season opener but dropping a pair of games to Appalachian State. That’s it.
One thing for sure is that JMU will play with some pace. The Dukes rank in the top 75 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo. They don’t use much of the shot clock and opponents are scoring fairly quickly against them.
Wisconsin plays slow, but offense won’t be an issue. The Badgers don’t shoot many 3-pointers, so JMU’s biggest defensive strength won’t be as much of a factor in this matchup.
The Badgers rank 13th in KenPom’s adjusted offense, and star wing AJ Storr, a transfer from St. John’s, is playing his best basketball right now.
It’s been well over a month since Wisconsin scored fewer than 70 points in a game, and that instance was against a stingy Ohio State defense.
The Badgers have played a tough schedule, but they still rank toward the bottom in defensive eFG%. Let’s be clear, this defense isn’t very good; Wisconsin ranks 275th in defensive eFG%, 345th in defensive 3P% and close to last in block percentage.
This seems like it’s a good draw for a JMU offense with something to prove against next-level competition. At minimum, it’s a good draw for scoring against an underwhelming defense.
(9:40 p.m. ET)
There’s a competitive 5.5-point spread on this game, so bonus foul shots at the end would be a fantastic ingredient for this recipe we’re cooking.
Overall, we have two good offenses, one fast team and one bad defense.
Those are great ingredients for an over bet.
Pick: Over 145 points (-110, bet365)