One of the best teams in the Group of 5 will be in the spotlight on Friday night.
Not only is James Madison the clear favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference, but it also boasts one of the shortest prices to make the College Football Playoff of any team in the Group of 5.
Bob Chesney has this program humming along, and it could score a massive result at Cardinal Stadium in Week 2.
The Dukes are 13.5-point underdogs, but this line has ticked down all week after opening at 16.5. The total is sitting at 56.5 points.
It tells you everything you need to know about JMU’s football program that last year’s 9-4 season was viewed as a disappointment.
The Dukes were considered the class of the Sun Belt going into the year, and were a trendy sleeper pick to nab the Group of 5 bid in the Playoff.
Instead, the Dukes had a peculiar season that saw them win, 70-50, against UNC in Week 2, and then lose to Louisiana-Monroe, Georgia Southern and Marshall, costing themselves a shot at the Sun Belt title.
JMU started 2025 on a high, pasting Weber State, 45-10, and the team will be buoyed by watching last year’s breakout star, Alonza Barnett III, finding pay dirt nine months after tearing his ACL.
With an easy one out of the way, the Dukes now head on the road to take on the best team they’ve faced in the Chesney era.
Louisville was viewed as a potential gatecrasher in the ACC behind Clemson all summer, but the Cardinals aren’t getting much attention after a couple of blue-blood programs, Miami and Florida State, pulled off huge wins in Week 1.
Still, Louisville is the third favorite to win the conference behind Clemson and Miami, and Jeff Brohm has this program chugging along, even if nobody is noticing.
Part of the reason that Louisville isn’t on anybody’s radar yet is because of the amount of turnover this program undergoes each offseason. There were a combined 58 transfers (in and out) after 2024.
It’s hard to predict how a team with that much change will fare, especially early, but the ceiling is pretty high thanks to a dynamic running game and the arrival of former USC quarterback Miller Moss.
The JMU defense is strong by Group of 5 standards, but stopping this explosive Louisville offense is a tough ask of any team from that level. That said, the Dukes should be able to rip off a crooked number themselves, as Louisville’s defense was leaky in 2024 and brought in a ton of new faces that need to get up to speed.
At 14 or better, I’d lean towards the Dukes, but this number has ticked down throughout the week so I don’t know if we’ll see that price again. The Over 56.5 is in range, however.
The Play: Over 56.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.